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Paper presented at the conference Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, 23-24 March 1994. Sensitivity analyses based on financial variables are now routinely applied to the forecast financial results of mining projects especially during the feasibility stage. Risk analysis is gaining acceptance but is still almost universally confined to the effects of variations in financial variables. The single most sensitive factor in almost all mining projects is the ore reserve, but it is either ignored or improperly used in sensitivity and risk analyses. Unlike financial variables, the components of the ore reserve (grades and tonnages of mining blocks) are a function of location within the orebody. Physical (mining) access to these components is therefore a function of time which has a crucial effect on forecast cash flows. It is critical that these fundamental concepts are included in risk analyses of mining projects. The effects are considered of the uncertainty of the ore reserve on feasibility studies and open-pit mine design for a small gold mining venture. Geostatistical simulation is used as a method of quantifying the risk in using grades and tonnages estimated from sparse data

Jun 16, 1905

By C Smith, R I. Maczkowiack, P D. Erskine

Open cut coal-mining has been conducted in the Bowen Basin region of central Queensland for almost five decades, and has disturbed an estimated area of 140 000 ha of agricultural land until 2011. Approximately one-third of the area disturbed by mining has been rehabilitated to pastures or bushland. However, none of the rehabilitated land has yet been assigned a specific end-use. This research project develops an approach for assessing end-use risks for the regionÆs mined land, and develops risk assessment models for selected end-uses. First, a web-based survey of stakeholders was used to identify risks to be assessed. The risks identified were surface erosion, subsurface erosion, bushfires, weeds and feral animals. The survey also identified possible end-uses of bushland and grazing. Second, conceptual risk models were developed based on the risk assessment concepts of likelihood and consequence specified in the Australian and New Zealand risk assessment standards. Likelihood was modelled using site characteristics and management factors that influence the occurrence probability of risks (eg surface erosion), while consequence was modelled using a set of site condition indicators and condition thresholds (changes in root-zone water-holding capacity, soil erodibility, vegetation ground cover and soil organic matter and transition probability to a non-preferred ecosystem type).The factors influencing likelihood and consequence for each risk have been integrated using Bayesian networks. The next step in model development is to parameterise the Bayesian networks using existing equations, empirical datasets, or expert opinion where data are not available. The parameterised models will be used to assess grazing and bushland end-uses against erosion, bushfire, weed and feral animal risks for rehabilitated mined land sites, with the purpose of identifying the relative risks associated with each end-use, and the landform design specifications and land management practices under which end-use risks are minimised.CITATION:Maczkowiack, R I, Smith, C and Erskine, P D, 2012. Risk assessment models for post-mining land use, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2012, pp 33-42 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 10, 2012

By Nilufer Kursunoglu

Despite being crucial for meeting the world’s energy demands, coal mining operations present considerable health risks, especially when it comes to exposure to coal dust. Longwall coal mining, an advanced technique, has considerably enhanced production but made dust control more difficult. Due to its explosive nature, coal dust continues to be a serious and dangerous concern in the industry despite developments in safety technology. This study aims to comprehensively assess the risk of coal dust explosions by integrating fuzzy risk matrix and Pareto analysis methodologies, offering precise risk ratings for various root causes. A fuzzy risk matrix was developed to assign exact risk ratings to identified root causes. Additionally, a Pareto chart was used to identify the main reasons and suggest particular preventive measures. 17 significant causes were determined for underground coal mines based on the study’s methodology, and some preventive measures were suggested. In accordance with fuzzy risk rating values, root causes were divided into six categories. The root hazard with the highest risk rating was identified as ‘accumulation of inflammable gas/gases’. The proposed approach was used to examine incidents caused by coal dust explosions in Turkish coal mines in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of combining the fuzzy risk matrix and Pareto analysis for assessing coal dust explosions. This study gives not only a solid framework for risk assessment but also critical information for classifying the risks associated with coal mine dust explosions. The results highlight the critical necessity for proactive and preventive actions to reduce the hazards of coal dust explosions and protect the safety of mining workers.

Nov 16, 2023

By L. Mohammadi

Outline ?Background on the accident at the Sullivan Mine No.1 Waste Dump ?Holistic approach to understand the reason for accidents (Atmospheric) ?Specific hazards at reclamation sites ?Regular atmospheric risk assessment at reclamation sites ?Fuzzy risk assessment ?Managing risk at legacy sites

May 1, 2010

By M J. Pejovic, S BoÜevski, I Miljanovic, M Hudej, A Milutinovic, A Petrovski

The paper deals with the problem of managing the supplies of consumables (energy resources, lubricants, explosives, explosive supplies, tires, spare parts, etc) in mines. After the introductory remarks and comments, a general stochastic model of supply, relating in general to the dynamic programming method is presented. A selection of stochastic supply model for experiments and research by the authors of this paper is not a coincidence, based on of their long experience, showing that this type of model is the most suitable to provide support for decision-making and management of supplies of consumables in mines.In order for the problem?of?consumables?supply?management to be reviewed, in whole and objectively from the aspect of risk, experimental tests of the stochastic model in real conditions were performed at the limestone open pit mine æZelenikovecÆ near Skopje, the capital of Macedonia. The scope of the experimental research enabled reliable analysis. The results obtained confirm the efficiency and reliability of the stochastic model and two separate manipulative-operational positions regarding its application, which may have an important influence on the optimisation of supplies.

Sep 26, 2011

By A. Haghighat

A risk analysis on mine fires for all U.S. underground coal mines from 2000–2012 was completed to identify locations that have a high risk for fire incidents. The data for this analysis was extracted from the Mine Safety and Health Administration’s (MSHA) mine fire accident reports database. After identifying fire incidents from this database, a risk matrix was developed for underground locations that showed a significant propensity for fire incidents. This matrix associates the hazards and risks with the severity and frequency of their consequences at each location. These significant mine areas will be the concentration of future studies in fire behavior, suppression techniques, and simulation methodologies. INTRODUCTION Fires in underground mines pose significant hazards to personnel because of inherent restrictions to movement and limitations to egress routes. Despite improvements, mine fires remain serious hazards in underground coal mine. In order to better mitigate the risks from fire hazards in the modern underground mining environment, a better understanding of where fire events occur must be gained. The following paper presents an investigation on the number of fatal and non-fatal incidents in underground coal mines fires from 2000 to 2012. Three phases of risk assessment (i.e., risk identification, estimation, and evaluation) were applied to the recorded fire events from the MSHA incident database that occurred during this time period. Using this process, a fire hazard was first defined. This definition was then used to identify any incidents that had occurred as a result of the defined hazards. The seriousness of the injuries and damages were finally quantified for each incident though an estimate of severity and frequency and then aggregated according to underground location (ISO, 1999; Van Duijne, 2008). Using this approach, locations prone to incidents resulting from fire hazards were first identified. The risk for the occurrence a fire incident in general was then estimated for each of the identified locations. The results of this assessment will be used to improve fire simulation techniques for the identified, high risk underground locations. RISK IDENTIFICATION A risk for this assessment was defined as any single occurrence of a fire initiated by the ignition of gas, dust, or electricity. Each recorded occurrence of such an event in the MSHA incident database was counted as a single fire incident. Both non-fatal incidents that were reportable but did not result in a fatality and fatal incidents that fell into the aforementioned criteria were counted. Incidents in the MSHA database that were already classified as “generic” were not considered. The remaining incidents were then totaled and aggregated according to the underground location in which they occurred. In previous studies, a number of locations, which are listed in Table 1, were highlighted as high fire hazard areas (McDonald et al, 1980; Pomroy et al, 1995; De Rosa, 2004). These locations were used to group the fire incidents extracted from the MSHA incident database. The compiled numbers of non-fatal and fatal underground coal fire incidents from 2000 to 2012 are displayed in Table 1.

Jan 1, 2019

By Bruce K. Hebblewhit

Australia is well endowed with extensive reserves of thick underground coal scams, particularly in the range of 4.5m to 9m thicknesses. (For the purposes of this paper, thick scams are defined as being greater than 4.5m thick.) At the present time, the thickest, high production, high productivity underground mining operation in Australia operates at a maximum of approximately 4.8m using single pass longwall methods. In a number of instances, conventional' height operations are mining thick seam coal, effectively sterilising considerable reserves - either because of financial or technical risk concerns, or in some cases poorer quality coal at some horizons in the scam, UNSW has been involved in thick scam mining research over many years, most recently through an ACARP -funded project, jointly with the CMTE in Australia. A key part of that project involved the assessment of the relative geotechnical risks associated with the various methods under consideration. The methods were: single pass longwall; multi-slice descending longwall; soutirage and related caving methods (including the Chinese Longwall Top Coal Caving method (LTCC)): and hydraulic mining. A formal risk assessment process was adopted to review the risks, relative to a conventional 4m high longwall operation. This paper presents the findings of that risk review and discusses the geotechnical issues (and some possible solutions for risk management) which need to be dealt with in order to bring these methods to fruition in the context of the Australian coal industry environment.

Jan 1, 2001

By Uwe Kaulbars

Vibration measurements at the workplace are often complicated and expensive. The assessment of the risk in conformity with EC Directive 2002/44/EC “Vibration” (which lays down the minimum requirements of laws in Europe for occupational safety and health) can therefore be carried out on the basis of an estimate based on information from manufacturers as well as by measurement conforming to ISO 5349. The characteristic values (emission values) determined by manufacturers in laboratory conditions may deviate from the exposure values measured at source at the workplace. Equally, deviations may arise as a result of the delay in the changeover of test methods from the single axis of measurement to the total vibration value for the three axes of measurement conforming to ISO 20643. To prevent faulty estimates, the manufacturer’s information has to be corrected by a tool-related factor in accordance with CEN/TR 15350. By taking the example of masonry and stone working machines, the empirically determined tool-related correction factor is checked and confirmed. Methods Vibration measurements were carried out in accordance with ISO 5349 in practical application conditions on 10 selected typical eccentric and orbital sanders, concrete and disc grinders as well as on wall chasers and stone saws. Results The total vibration value obtained for the investigated tools rangedfrom ahv = 3.6 m/s² to ahv = 11.6 m/s². When the values from the practical measurements are compared with the manufacturer’s vibration values, the underestimation of the risk occurring in some cases can be largely compensated for by the tool-related factors conforming to CEN/TR 15350 (see Figure 1).

Jan 6, 2006

By S SSdbom

A comparison was made between chemical analysis and ocular mineral/rock classification in health-based risk assessment of historical mine waste produced between 1625 and 1975. Large parts of the mine waste are heavily weathered and secondary minerals are abundant. The field was divided into several areas from where composite samples were collected. Seventy-five mine waste samples were selected for chemical analysis (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, V and Zn) and ocular mineral/rock classification (silicate, mica, granite/pegmatite, carbonate, iron oxide ore, sulfide ore, distribution between chalcopyrite, sphalerite and galena and distribution between pyrite and pyrrhotite). The waste has been produced in conjunction with mining a complex sulfidic ore with increasing iron oxide content (mainly magnetite) towards the northern part of the field. Elevated concentrations were found for Cd (average 26 mg/kg dw), Cu (average 3500 mg/kg dw), Pb (average 4100 mg/kg dw) and Zn (average 11 000 mg/kg dw). Large differences between average and median values indicated that the data was not normally distributed, ie the metals occur as discrete minerals (eg chalcopyrite, galena and sphalerite). The ocular classification indicated low carbonate content, chalcopyrite dominating over sphalerite and galena in most samples and an even distribution between pyrite and pyrrhotite. Both analytical and ocular mineral/rock classification data were combined into a common matrix that was evaluated using multivariate statistics. Principal component analysis (PCA) showed, for instance, that chromium and vanadium were mostly associated with harder minerals and rocks. PCA also indicated that a similar graphical picture could be obtained for chemical data and ocular mineral/rock classification data, respectively. The comparison indicates that ocular mineral/rock classification can replace or at least reduce the numbers of chemical analysis in health- based risk assessment of historical mine waste.

Jan 1, 2008

By O. D. Staman

The risk assessment project examines the likelihood of inorganic contaminants from copper dump-leaching operations to contaminate domestic water supplies. The project examines contaminant transport by modeling contaminant movement from the base of a leach pile through the unsaturated zone and into the saturated zone. The modeling effort is unique in that it models infiltration, contaminant transport in the unsaturated and saturated zone combined with geochemical modeling of the unsaturated zone. The project incorporates probability theory to reflect the uncertainty of hydrogeologic parameters.

Jan 1, 1994

By W Patton

Investment decisions in the mineral resources sector are made on the basis of an assessment of the economic potential for a mineral deposit. Given the supporting information for the location, scale, and quantity of the commodity of interest, miners and investors aim to make risk-informed decisions when considering further investment. The objective of resource classification is the synthesis of various types and quantities of geologic information used in resource model construction to assign confidence categories to the estimated mineral resources, which can then be used to support informed economic decisions. In this paper a risk-based classification scheme for iron ore mineral resources using conditional simulations is presented. The method involves categorisation of each block according to a confidence level, considering expected recoveries from a kriging model over mining production volumes. The realisations of the simulated model are used to assign risk-based confidence categories to zones of the ore deposit. One motivation for this work is to assess the sensitivity of the scheme to geologic uncertainties. Specifically, that which uncertainty in the layout of mineralising alterations and weathering overprints influence variabilities of associated rock properties and the likelihood of obtaining expected ore recoveries. It is shown these risks have material implications for a project’s economic potential. How the scheme can be extended to the grade control context and the value subsequent grade control activities is also quantified.

May 24, 2023

By Peter Fischer, Heinz-Jiirgen Kateloe, Anton Sroka, Axel Preusse

"Since mining in Germany has a long history, there are still many locations where the surface fracture problem has to be solved. Shallow mine workings from an earlier era can affect the surface in a discontinuous way. In many cases, due to light overburden load, those mine rooms did not collapse and a downfall can suddenly happen for many reasons, e.g., in connection with a changed load entry into the subsurface or by additional influence of water. This results in ground movements, which in extreme cases, appear as surface fractures.Depending on the use of the surface, ground movements caused in such a way constitute an endangerment by law. Particularly, within the southern Ruhr district, surface fracture and subsidence endangered ranges are determined on the basis of an empirical method that resulted from a systematic evaluation of surface fractures and rock disclosures. This method indicates maximum ranges within which impacts from abandoned shallow mine workings must be assumed.With a special emphasis on a risk management approach, RWTH Aachen University adapted the model of stochastic media to the conditions of abandoned shallow mining to compute and illustrate potential ground movements due to the collapse of shallow mine workings. Further investigations were concerned with the analysis of characteristic parameters which can serve for the assessment of the surface fracture probability in a comparative view of different cases. In recent years, more than 50 surface fractures in the southern Ruhr district were analyzed in order to develop a risk assessment of surface fracture endangered ranges over shallow mine workings. The results that have been obtained so far are described in this paper.INTRODUCTIONAbandoned underground mine workings of shallow depth can pose a threat to the surface. Due to small overburden rock loads, shallow excavations often remain intact for decades after the operations have ceased and may collapse abruptly (Braemer et al., 2005; Hollmann and Nuerenberg, 1972; Preusse et al., 2007). Several approaches for prognosis of surface fracture resulting from 97 subsurface collapse deal with this topic (Loebel and Sroka, 2001; Tajdus and Sroka, 2009)."

Jan 1, 2010

By R. K. Dunham, D. J. Reddish, X. L. Yao

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 10pp., 10 refs. The integrated approach combines a powerful ground movement prediction program with a knowledge-based expert system. ESDAS (Expert Structural Damage Assessment System) was developed to evaluate mining subsidence damage in the form of risk and in terms of the three vital contributing components (mining factors, site factors and structural factors). Using a certainty factor risk assessment technique, the system can be used to predict the likely damage to a particular structure subjected to mining subsidence. A previously developed powerful ground movement prediction program, SWIFT (Subsidence With Influence Function Techniques), has been combined with the expert system to allow the mining factor to be more accurately determined in a broader range of mining layout. Since SWIFT can be calibrated to any particular coal field using local subsidence data, it is believed that the integrated system could be used in any coal field worldwide for the assessment and control of mining subsidence damage risks

Dec 1, 1995

By R. Strydom, J. H. Selby, J. Slabbert, W. Enslin

Zircon is a naturally occurring silicate of zirconium, which is used in large quantities (~1 million tonnes per annum) for its refractory properties and its extreme chemical inertness. All zircons contain uranium and thorium bound into the crystal lattice, generally at levels up to 500 ppm of uranium plus thorium. This paper focuses on one aspect of the zircon industry—the ability to safely transport large quantities of zircon sand. Currently zircon is not classified as a radioactive material for transport purposes. However, this is because of a factor used in the exemption clauses of the IAEA code on safe transport of radioactive materials. The objective of this study was to determine the validity of this factor, and was submitted as part of an IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP). The study is based primarily on measured rather than modelled data and covers the transport of large quantities of zircon from producers in South Africa to customers in Europe. Both occupational exposure of workers and exposure of members of the public have been considered. The transport routes studied cover rail, road, ocean-going ship and inland barge transport of unpackaged bulk products. The study showed that the most exposed member of the public would receive 10µSv/annum,while the most exposed worker would receive 144µSv/annum of exposure. It is concluded that these levels are well below all regulatory limits for such activities involving naturally occurring materials. The study also showed that normal operational exposures are higher than those in accident scenarios, a feature which does not occur with higher activity materials. It is further concluded that the study validates the use of the factor of 10 in TS-R-1, as applied to zircon sand. Additionally it is also concluded that the exemption currently applied to the transportation of bulk zircon sand is valid.

Jan 1, 2003

By Joshua Hoffman, Rob Farnfield, Catherine Johnson, Braden Lusk, Morgan Lane

IMESAFR (IME Safety Analysis for Risk) is a quantitative risk assessment software tool developed by the Institute of Makers of Explosives (IME) and A-P-T Research, Inc. It is used for managing risk in the commercial explosives industry, the newest version of the software was completed in 2012. This paper discusses the use of this software package in conjunction with data collected for a television series on the reenactment of the ‘London Blitz’, a 57-day bombing of the City of London in 1940. In this reenactment, purpose built structures using period design and materials were constructed at a test facility in the North of England. Five devices ranging in size from 20 kg (44 lb) to 1100 kg (2400 lb) were detonated at varying distances from the structures; each blast was monitored by EPC-UK and the resulting structural damage was analyzed. Data recorded from the blasts included high-speed videos, photographs before and after each event and air overpressure readings. The same data was inputted into the IMESAFR software package to assess the risk imposed on the residents of London during this time. The appropriateness of this tool for evaluating structures built using historical practices is discussed. Data from the full scale tests is compared to effects predicted by IMESAFR. Further analysis of the risk recommendations produced by IMESAFR is compared to the actual damage assessed during the large scale tests.

Jan 1, 2014

By A Reid, A W. Musk, O Jones

In this paper, the authors attempt to bridge the gap that currently exists between the duty-of-care responsibilities of underground mining industry personnel, and the multifaceted health challenges facing mineworkers in Western Australia’s metal mines where diesel-powered mobile equipment predominate. In addressing this issue, the complexities of the nature and extent of the challenges are discussed along with the current inadequacy of existing regulatory metrics. Support is given to the need for well-organised in-mine baseline studies to clearly define the distribution and aging characteristics of the toxic and carcinogenic pollutants within the mine ventilation system, with special emphasis given to exploring the validity of biomonitoring systems. The paper concludes with the proposal that a template risk assessment data sheet be prepared for the industry to provide mining personnel with a sound basic knowledge of the health risks involved and the control measures and precautions available for minimising and/or eliminating the hazard.CITATION:Jones, O, Musk, A W, Reid, A and Davis, C, 2017. Risk assessment tool for mines using diesel-powered mobile equipment, in Proceedings 13th AusIMM Underground Operators’ Conference 2017, pp 151–154 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Oct 16, 2017

By Steve Kral

The list of environmental issues facing industry in general, and the mining industry in particular, has placed greater emphasis on the concept of risk assessment and risk management. In informal terms, risk can be defined as the chance of injury, loss or damage. More formally, it is defined as the probability of an occurrence and its consequences. In simple terms, risk assessment involves three questions: What can go wrong? How probable is it to go wrong? If it goes wrong, what are the consequences? Experts on the subject of risk assess¬ment and management met in St. Louis, MO in October 1992 to discuss the extensive and innovative technology that has been developed in this arena. Each agreed that a consistent framework can be used to approach risk assessment/ management considerations in siting and design alternatives, as well as when considering financial aspects of mine development. And the environmental planning process for mines, as well as planning for operation through closures, will rely more heavily on risk assessment and management techniques. Risk assessment is a tool to assist engineers, scientists and managers make better, defensible operational decisions. A realistic and probabilistic risk analysis, coupled with a sound financial model, can combine a large set of alternatives and criteria to arrive at a defensible decision. Organizers of this regional SME conference believe that mining professionals should become fully conversant with risk assessment techniques and approaches because this arena provides opportunities to develop more rational decision-making techniques. Current health risk assessments rely heavily on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approaches. Several speakers and papers show how this approach has been applied to a variety of topics. Two major advantages come forward when applying risk assessment techniques to environmental clean-up options for contaminated sites. They are the selection of practical options and cost-effective alternatives. A probabilistic risk assessment provides results that can be directly related to clean-up costs. It has been shown that small reductions in risk are obtained for large increases in cost after a certain threshold value is reached. A preferred, practical clean-up alternative that provides permanent solutions can be selected based on a probabilistic assessment. Here are summaries of some of the papers presented at the meeting.

Jan 1, 1993

By P. J. Foster

A common theme running through recently introduced mining health and safety legislation in many parts of the world is risk assessment. Most recently, risk assessment legislation has been introduced across the mining industry of South Africa and the view that the introduction of risk assessment based legislation provides an ideal opportunity to improve on past health and safety performance is presented. Risk assessment techniques range from highly complex safety system techniques that are used in high technology process industries, to subjective techniques based on simple judgements that are finding use in many other industries. The objective of this paper is to shed some light on risk assessment, not by detailing the risk assessment process but by identifying the crucial elements that need to be considered if risk assessments are to be successful in changing health and safety performance. A case study is presented illustrating the introduction of risk assessment into the Ingwe Coal Corporation, one of South Africa?s largest mining houses, to indicate how the system was developed and how it is being used.

Jan 1, 1998

By L. Munsamy

The bulk of primary mining at the Anglo Coal's Bank Colliery was carried out by drill and blast method, in a bord and pillar layout exploiting the No. 2 Seam. Secondary extraction, top/bottom coaling, also took place using both the drill and blast (D&B) method and continuous miners (CM). Extensive mining in this seam resulted in the risk of sterilising the No. 4 Seam reserves. Therefore, multiseam design guidelines established by Salamon and Oravecz (8) were re-evaluated in light of the low safety factors and the low pillar width to mining height ratios of pillars in the No. 2 Seam. Two and three dimensional (2D & 3D) numerical modelling was carried out to quantify and verify the parameters that influence the multiseam mining. The modelling was conducted primarily in two dimensions (plane strain), with 3D models to confirm the validity of the 2D results. A panel risk assessment flow chart was developed to assess the panels with respect to pillar failure and multiseam mining. This flow chart was extended into the evaluation of risk of surface subsidence using the current rock engineering knowledge. The aim of this risk assessment tool is to assess all underground workings at Anglo Coal collieries simply and rapidly. The identification of high-risk areas would warrant further investigation and possible backfilling to reduce the risk of pillar failures ensuring that reserves in the No. 4 and 5 Seams above are intact.

Jan 1, 2004

By L W. Palmer

"Evaluating the geological risk associated with ore deposits is becoming common practice in the mining industry. While geostatistical simulation is a useful tool for evaluating this risk, the effect of applying different types of simulation is less understood. For simulation of categorical variables like rock types, available methods perform simulation in fundamentally different ways. In this study, the geological risk relevant for informed mine planning is studied with two categorical simulation methods, PluriGaussian Simulation (PGS) and Sequential Indicator Simulation (SIS). Risk is expressed as a probability of repeated occurrence of lithological units in the same location across simulations. Significant differences are observed between the methods in terms of spatial distribution of risk. To identify the most plausible risk model, the input parameters at every step of both techniques are scrutinised. PGS and SIS inputs are classified as four parameters that are: fundamental to implementation of the methodfixed to enable comparison of PGS and SISdetermined by user interpretation, hence variablenormally optimised during application of PGS and SIS. The effect of parameter selection from categories 1 and 4 on the risk model is investigated using drill core data from a leucogranite deposit. A corresponding block model is created for assigning outputs from PGS and SIS. Risk models produced by either method are illustrated in a cut-out from the block model to enable bench-by-bench comparison. For PGS, risk associated with relatively rare lithologies is relatively sensitive to variation of parameters. Independent of the abundance of lithology, a location-dependent effect of variogram and vertical proportion curve parameter selection is observed, with risk increasing towards the deposit edge. Although SIS requires fewer inputs, single lithologies must be modelled in turn. Using small numbers of samples in the search neighbourhood, all risk models differ substantially. For larger numbers of samples, the risk models are similar. Overall it appears that the risk model produced using SIS is less sensitive to changes than PGS but further work is required to confirm this.CITATION:Palmer, L W and Glass, H J, 2014. Risk associated with rock type prediction using simulation techniques, in Proceedings Ninth International Mining Geology Conference 2014 , pp 217–228 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne)."

Aug 18, 2014