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The words ""Uncertainty"" and ""Risk"" pervade every discussion about mining exploration and investment. Perhaps these terms are subjectively understood by industry professionals, but objective portrayal of these concepts outside the industry is a woefully undeveloped science. This paper addresses current industry understanding and practice regarding quantitative risk assessment techniques, and provides examples of the application of three of these techniques. Probabilistic techniques for financial risk assessment are valuable adjuncts to conventional financial analysis, and address a range of issues not assessable by any other means. The value of whole-of-project probabilistic risk assessment is currently debatable for decision-making purposes, but is seen as important as a mechanism to focus attention to the critical issues that ultimately impact on project success. The dissection of project capital into risk and non-risk components provides valuable insights into risk characteristics not readily quantifiable in any other way. This technique also provides a framework for more objective ""what if?"" scenario evaluation and for the capital structure of resource projects. Finally, mechanisms for the valuation of undeveloped reserves are examined, and guidelines suggested. The importance of reliability in production cost estimates is highlighted and the impact of early development on reserve valuations is discussed. The importance of economics throughout all stages of the evaluation process is fundamental.

Jan 1, 1994

By Fair A, Oxenford J

Syncrude Canada Ltd operates one of the largest open pit mines in the world at Fort McMurray in northern Alberta, Canada. In 1993, Syncrude mined and processed 131.2 Mt of oil sands to produce 67.0 MBbls of synthetic crude oil (SCO). This represents approximately 13 per cent of Canada's crude oil requirements. In addition to the oil sand mined, Syncrude moved approximately 96 Mt of overburden ahead of the mining operation in 1993. Since start-up in 1978, Syncrude has had outstanding success in improving the safety and reliability of its operation. Much of this success has been achieved by reducing risk through the application of new and improved technology. This improved safety and reliability has resulted in, among other things, very significant improvements in operating costs and profitability. This paper discusses some of the technology applications that have been introduced at Syncrude to reduce risks to people, equipment, operations and the environment. Three specific examples will be discussed in detail to demonstrate how reductions in risk have greatly improved the operation.

Jan 1, 1994

By R. G. Church

Belle Ayr Mine was established in 1972 as the first large surface coal mine in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming. During the mid-1980s, it was eventually out-distanced in productivity by newer mines, and management recognized that the mine must recapitalize its major mining equipment and enhance its workforce flexibility in order to be competitive in the deteriorating market situation. Therefore, state-of-the-art haulage and loading equipment was placed into service, and a 12-hour rotating shift and a technician-based workforce was implemented. Belle Ayr Mine is located 29 km (18 miles) southeast of Gillette, Wyoming, in Campbell County (Figure 1). The mine is a part of AMAX Coal West, Inc., and with its sister mine, Eagle Butte, located 8 km (5 miles) north of Gillette, is a major contributor to the overall coal production of AMAX Coal Industries, Inc., headquartered in Houston, Texas. This paper addresses mine planning, recapitalization initiatives, and innovative workforce changes which propelled this large, surface coal mine to the forefront of productivity in the ever tightening low sulphur coal market.

Jan 1, 1994

By J. S. Stacbulak

"The main ventilation design features adopted at Inco to safeguard personnel against the effects of fires are described in this paper. Measures taken to prevent and detect fires due to spontaneous combustion, and fires involving conveyor belts, are described in detail.IntroductionConsidering the over-all picture of present-day mining operations, the expenditure required to provide a proper system of mine ventilation and fife control should be regarded as a sound investment that will pay back in increased mining efficiency, improved safety, health, and morale of the miners.Mine ventilation control and mine fife detection and fighting are inseparable, because a ventilation system can spread deadly products of combustion just as efficiently as it does life-sustaining oxygen. Therefore, the possibility of a mine fife occurring is of particular concern.The flirt objective is to prevent a fife. The second objective is to design the ventilation system so that a positive fresh air supply can be ensured on each main level regardless of the location of the fife. The third objective is to be able to detect the fife at an early stage and to extinguish it before it can develop into a major fife.Accordingly, at Inco, very extensive measures are taken to prevent fires and to locate, isolate and extinguish them rapidly. To obtain an early warning, it is not sufficient to know that a fife has started, but it is also necessary to know where the fife is burning."

Jan 1, 1994

By L. A. Panek

A new pillar strength formula is presented, incorporating a function P of size and shape, which takes into account the size-shape interaction effect as well as the enhanced strength exhibited by wide pillars. Existing pillar formulas, lacking these capabilities, are not suitable for extrapolating small-specimen test results to mine-pillar sizes and shapes. Interpreting compressive-strength test results as function of P clearly reveals wide-pillar behavior in much old test data. Model relationships are discussed, along with their scaling implications.

Jan 1, 1994

Mine drainage and mine reclamation are topics of major interest to the mining industry, federal and local governments, and the general public. This publication and its companion three volumes are the proceedings of a conference held in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, April 24-29, 1994. There were twelve sessions (69 papers) that dealt with mine drainage, including modeling, geochemistry, prediction, treatment, control strategies, characterization, hydrology, and case studies. These sessions comprise volumes 1 and 2. The six sessions (34 papers) that dealt with reclamation and revegetation of disturbed lands are included in volume 3. Volume 4 includes the six sessions (34 papers) that dealt with such topical issues as fires at abandoned mine sites, subsidence, hydrology, mine wastes, and policy. Poster session presentations are represented by 49 papers and 92 abstracts that have been placed in the back of volumes 2, 3, and 4, consistent with the subject of that volume.

Jan 1, 1994

By Giles D, Wegmann D

The Mt Todd Gold Project is located 42 km northwest of the township of Katherine within the Northern Territory of Australia. It is situated in the southeastern portion of the Pine Creek Geosyncline. The Batman gold deposit, the largest of several deposits at Mt Todd, hosts an identified mineral resource of 92.9 million tonnes (Mt) grading 1.4 grams/tonne (g/t) as at 31 December 1993. Host rocks at Batman are assigned to the Early Proterozoic Burrell Creek Formation, comprising greywacke and siltstone interbedded with shale. Gold mineralisation is associated with a very broad zone of sheeted and stockwork quartz-sulphide veins that occupy a corridor of intense brittle fracture and faulting. A conceptual model of formation involves the dilation of joints and micro-faults within overlying sediments during sinistral movement along a basement shear zone. Synchronous granite intrusion generated convective circulation of crustal fluids through the sedimentary pile resulting in the formation of auriferous quartz veins within favourable structures. The Batman zone of mineralisation is not directly related to fold structures which typify several other major gold deposits within the Pine Creek Geosyncline.

Jan 1, 1994

By L. B. Pankratz

Thermodynamic data on carbides, nitrides, and other selected substances were reviewed, evaluated, and compiled at the U.S. Bureau of Mines Albany Research Center. Values for Cp°, S°, H° - H°298, -(G° - H298)/T, ?Hf, ?Gf, and log Kf are given in tabular form. Cp°, H° - H°248, ?Hf°, and ?Gf° are also expressed algebraically.

Jan 1, 1994

By T O Aspinall

The Australian mineral industry involves a diverse range of expertise and skills. Within that, the mining industry, representing mine planning, mine management and equipment operation, has capital intensive, high productivity equipment and a small but skilled workforce. Continuing education for all personnel in the workforce after formal school courses will be an important contribution towards improving competitiveness. The non-tertiary sector represents a significant proportion of the workforce and requires as much attention as the tertiary educated group. Competency Based Training is now being developed for the mining industry in Australia under the National Training Board and the mining industry is well represented in establishing standards and curriculum. TAFE is a major source of accredited courses but some mining companies are also developing internal courses not necessarily for external accreditation. Articulation of such accredited courses to tertiary mining engineering courses has been considered. The education and training of equipment operators through continuing education requires attention to operating skills, an understanding of the productivity factors under the direct influence of the operator and providing product quality to the customer. The education and training of mining engineers has been widely covered and continuing close involvement of the mining industry is required to ensure well balanced courses in technical and interpersonal skills as well as motivation to continue learning for life. Postgraduate research is a part of continuing education but the mining industry has to continually address the adequate recognition of post-graduate qualifications for the increased technical or management expertise and the development of better analytical and problem solving skills which can be directed towards improving competitiveness. More attention has to be paid to providing adequate financial incentives to attract suitable students, particularly after attaining some experience, and to address their professional career path with a company so they are not significantly disadvantaged by undertaking post-graduate studies. The Chartered Professional Engineer status as provided by The Institution of Engineers, Australia to qualified candidates is being considered by The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy as a further recognition of a member's specific expertise and competence in mining and metallurgical engineering. Continuing education plays a major part in the maintenance of the expertise and competence required for a professional engineer to develop and also to retain chartered status. Continuing education will be a significant part of the education and training of all the mining workforce towards improving the competitiveness of the mining industry. The major challenges will be the motivation of all towards lifelong learning and the integration of the various programs towards providing the opportunity for a steady and satisfying career progression.

Jan 1, 1994

By J A Evans

A well-maintained and low cost mining operation today requires the use of condition monitoring techniques. At ERA - Ranger Mine oil analysis, vibration monitoring, infra-red themtography, and performance analysis have been successfully applied over the last four years to lower operating and maintenance costs. All condition monitoring is scheduled through a comprehensive in-house developed maintenance management system known as the Engineering Information System (EIS). (EIS) is used extensively at Ranger to ensure consistent frequency and recording .of all condition monitoring data. This paper provides an insight into the benefits of condition monitoring and explores the future direction for condition monitoring techniques at Ranger.

Jan 1, 1994

The constructionhunnelling industry in Hong Kong has taken an upturn during the last few years due to the commencement of works to relocate the International Airport to Chek Lap Kok Island. The Airport Core Program consists of ten individual projects including roads, landfill, bridges and tunnels to build the airport and link it to the mainland of Hong Kong. Part of one of these projects is Cheung Ching Tunnel located on Tsing Yi Island. The proposed tunnel consists of a 1.6 km twin tube road tunnel through the island's central ridge, taking three lanes of traffic each way. Each tunnel is 16 m wide - (the widest road tunnel in Hong Kong) and are 10 m high. ICI Explosives (China) saw an opportunity to supply bulk explosives to the Cheung Ching tunnel and contacted ICI Australia to determine availability of a bulk system for tunnel blasting, and assist in its introduction. This paper discusses the methodology behind developing that bulk system to suit a large tunnel drill and blast operation. It also looks at the problems encountered along the way, from the development of the product to the application of the system in the tunnel and the eventual success of introducing a bulk system into a large tunnelling project.

Jan 1, 1994

By Gillies A. D S

Rail, port and shipping charges represent 30 to 50 per cent of landed costs for Australian coal mines selling to Asia. This proportion is higher for sales to Europe, yet it is in Europe where Australian producers are aiming for increased market share. The landed cost of coal to the international customer is the key parameter which determines market competitiveness. The objective of this study is to examine Australian export coal competitiveness in terms of transport distance. The approach used examines world coking coal and steaming coal production and the transport distances between major exporting regions and importing countries. Reference is made to the importance of land transport costs and a comparative approach for emphasising the relative magnitude of this factor is developed. Models developed are examined in terms of Australia's exports and a conclusion is reached that a reduction in rail freight costs would be an effective measure for improving the competitiveness of Australia's coal industry.

Jan 1, 1994

By Stephenson D. B, Burgess J, Burgess F. L, Marshall S. H

A new high intensity flotation process 'FASTFLOT' is explained and its theoretical advantages compared with other flotation systems are discussed. The results of initial FASTFLOT testing on the zinc roughing circuit at Pasminco Mining, Broken Hill South concentrator are presented and compared to recent plant data. The comparison suggests that on roughing duties, the FASTFLOT process yields superior concentrate grade while requiring less than one third the residence time of a conventional mechanical cell plant. Strategies for FASTFLOT deployment are also presented.

Jan 1, 1994

By C L Humphrey

Biological monitoring programs for environmental protection require techniques that will provide both early detection of possible adverse effects, and assessment of the ecological significance of these effects. Monitoring techniques must include responses sensitive to the impact, that can be subjected to rigorous statistical analysis and for which statistical power is high. Such issues in baseline research of 'what and how to measure?' and 'for how long?' have been the focus of a program being developed to monitor and assess effects of mining operations on the effectively pristine, freshwater ecosystems of the Alligator Rivers Region (ARR) in tropical northern Australia. Application of the BACIP design, utilising a form of temporal replication, to univariate data (single species) and multivariate (community) data is described. For new ventures in Australia (such as mining), monitoring programs should be designed to establish with high probability that an impact on the ecosystem no greater than a prescribed amount has gone undetected - as opposed to simply allowing development to continue as long as 'proof' of impact is not available. Such a precautionary approach represents a shifting of the 'burden of proof' and would require with the BACIP design, a minimum number of baseline years in order to achieve some desired level of statistical power in a test for impact. Power analyses conducted on two to five years (depending upon the technique) of baseline data from streams of the ARR indicate that the BACIP design would not impose developmental constraints on mining and that a policy of reversal of the burden of proof would provide the cornerstone required for managing such development in an ecologically sustainable manner.

Jan 1, 1994

By M Coleman

Information is a key ingredient for successful mineral exploration and development. Whether identifying potential exploration localities from a map, interpreting technical reports or searching a register for operators past and present, the common aim is a parcel of information from which the enquirer can make a decision. Traditional information gathering often requires days or weeks of manual research, studying maps, files, reports etc, before consolidating the results into an investment proposal. In recent times, such methods have largely been replaced by Information Technology, making the process much faster, easier and more centralised. However, notwithstanding some very successful technology implementations, the general rush to computerise everything in sight has left many organisations struggling to cope with the management of large volumes of diverse information. Information management is now recognised as the most important factor in determining the success of information technology implementation. The Northern Territory Department of Mines and Energy (DME) has established a detailed information management strategy to underpin the rapid advance of computer technology within the organisation. A broad base of timely and reliable information is gradually becoming more accessible. It is envisaged that the availability of combined spatial, textual and scientific information will provide a sound basis for decision-making within the Department and the mining industry at large. Although information held by DME will be available at all times (24 hours on-line), its security and confidentiality will be guaranteed. The production of the DME system is aimed at satisfying the corporate objective to facilitate and promote mineral exploration and development. This paper outlines some current developments in the system.

Jan 1, 1994

By M W Kearns

The ERA - Ranger Mine ore processing operation consists of a sulphuric acid leach followed by counter current decantation and solvent extraction circuits. The most expensive unit processing operation at Ranger is the sulphuric acid leach. In 1992 and 1993 changes were made to the operation of the leach circuit. These changes have reduced power and reagent consumption in leach by 30 per cent and 20 per cent respectively with minimal effect on extraction efficiency. The first change was to operate the leach circuits at higher pHs than previously attempted. In addition a cap was placed on the amount of acid added to the leach circuit. Secondly, an on-line pH measurement system was installed and has reduced the variation with time of the leach circuit pHs. Finally, the number of leach vessels used was reduced from ten to seven. This action was undertaken after an examination of the uranium profile and the residence time in the leach circuit from previous years. This paper examines the above changes and assesses their effectiveness on plant performance and costs.

Jan 1, 1994

By Riley S

Many regulatory bodies have, or are considering, guidelines that require rehabilitated mine spoils to be erosionally stable (satisfying quantitative limits) over specified design lifetimes. One of the problems facing the industry is that many of the computer models used for erosion assessment were developed for agricultural applications and are unable to predict the change in the shape of engineered landforms over extended periods of time. In particular, they cannot predict where valleys and gullies will develop in the landforms and how big or deep they will be. Furthermore, many existing models require considerable skill to use. A computer model (SIBERIA) developed by the first author, able to model this valley and gully development over long design lifetimes, and which is directly based on digital terrain maps is discussed here. Proposed rehabilitation strategies for waste rock dumps at Ranger Uranium Mine as assessed with SIBERIA are discussed. New features of SIBERIA of interest to the mining industry include the spatial distribution of erosion, deposition and gully development, and various measures of the quantitative risk of failure. A collaborative project with the Queensland Coal Association, involving the first author, aims to deliver these capabilities to the coal industry in a user-friendly package. The objective is the cost-effective rehabilitation of strip mines. Some preliminary results from this project are presented.

Jan 1, 1994

By W J Fisher

Northern Australia leads in world-class mineral deposits' is a bold statement. First there must be a starting point. Land north of the Tropic of Capricorn (23¦ 26' 5") will be regarded as Northern Australia covering nearly 40 per cent of the land surface of Australia. As opposed to land south of the Tropic of Capricorn, it should be regarded as Tropical Northern Australia and for the sake of brevity, (TNA) Refer Figure 1. Apart from the tyranny of distance from centres of power and population in the temperate zone, it suffered in the past from the belief that the tropics are unsuited for European workers and from the lack of infrastructure. Outstanding mineral deposits of iron, base metals, gold and diamonds, discovered and developed in the past three decades, provided the substance for the title. There are many world-class mines producing and there are mineral deposits neutralised through Government policy. TNA can maintain its lead in world-class mineral deposits provided Government policy will stop partitioning the land and decreasing that available for exploration. Let's look at what we have that is world-class. In Western TNA iron ore deposits at Paraburdoo, Mt Tom Price, Marandoo, gold at Telfer, diamonds at Argyle. In central TNA uranium at Ranger and Jabiluka, lead-zinc-silver at McArthur River, gold at the Tanami, manganese at Groote Eylandt and bauxite at Gove. In eastern TNA Mt Isa, Hilton, Century zinc-lead, bauxite at Weipa, gold at Kidston, Mt Leyshon, magnesite at Yamba and coal mines in the Bowen Basin. Those mines or deposits stand out yet are only an indication of the numerous lesser mines and of mineral deposits depending for development on market demand and/or changes in Government policy, eg 'The Three Mines' policy. Very large areas of mineral rich structures in the western, central and eastern parts of TNA are concealed below flat lying comparatively young unmineralised sediments. The Great Artisan basin sediments in eastern TNA can and do host oil shale and non metallic minerals. Nearly 40 per cent of western TNA is covered by the Great Sandy Desert. The Canning Track, with a series of 54 wells, was constructed by surveyor Alfred Canning in 1908 - 1910 with great difficulty. It extends 1700 kilometres from Halls Creek in the north to the gold town of Wiluna in the south, through the Great and Little Sandy Deserts. Gold explorers are following favourable structures extending to the north east below the sediments and sand hills covering the track. Half of central TNA's mineral structures are concealed by the Tanami desert and the Cretaceous sediments covering the pastoral regions of the Barkly Tableland and the Daly Waters to Top Springs pastoral areas. The Georgina Basin in the south eastern section is part of the concealment.

Jan 1, 1994

By J I Stewart

The Copper Canyon deposits, occur in proximity to the regionally distinctive formational boundary between the Staveley Formation and Marimo Shale. The mineralisation here is associated with breccias, veins, and alteration zones near the base of the Marimo Shale unit and in the underlying evaporitic dolomite-dololutite dominant Staveley Formation. The Marimo Shale unit, in its basal 60 metres, is highly carbonaceous and hosts ubiquitous but minor diagenetic (?) copper-pyrite, and on occasion, extensive albite-microcline alteration centres, pyritic (cobaltiferous)-quartz veins, and microcline-quartz_+plagioclase veins or veinlet arrays. The most significant mineralisation, such as at the Greenrnount prospect, consists of a shallowly dipping package of alteration zones overprinted by multiple generations of pink-orange microcline-quartz-chalcopyrite-pyrite-(arsenopyrite) and albite-calcite- phlogopite veins. Accessory mineralogies in most of these mineralisation styles consist of tourmaline, monazite, rutile, and apatite. Chalcopyrite (and secondary chalcocite) and gold are associated with each generation of alteration but are best developed in the later stages of veining. In the underlying Staveley Formation, which is a conformable transition between the Corella Formation limestones and the Marimo Shale, chalcopyrite (cobaltiferous)-pyrite mineralisation occurs as disseminations in pre- and syntectonic breccias, and with disaggregated silica pseudomorphs (after thinly bedded evaporitic sulphate beds) and associated dolomitised limestone-calcilutite. Although this mineralisation may be partly diagenetic in origin the 200 in thick evaporitic packages are also host to a locally widespread (2 to 4 km long and 200 to >500 metres wide) and pervasive 'redrock' styled microcline-dolomite¦hematite alteration. Within this gross alteration package there also seems to be a consistent association with narrow (10 to 100 metres wide), linear (stratabound) semi-massive magnetite-hematite-microcline and quartz-chalcedony replacement zones. Like much of the nearby Corella Formation the Staveley Formation, under the Marimo Shale, has undergone dissolution, paleo-solution karsting (breccias) and tectonic brecciation such that the precursor lithological details have been progressively obliterated. The post-diagenetic to post-tectonic fluid pathway development and metasomatic alteration history of this important lithostructural package of rocks has been traced from preliminary studies only. The ability to do so is largely due to the absence of significant regional and contact metamorphic overprinting, and the local preservation of precursor sediment profiles. It is proposed that both the base of the Marimo Shale and parts of the underlying evaporitic-limestone-dololutite have acted as conformable fluid pathways for hydrothermal and (perhaps) diagenetically derived, Cu-Au-(¦Co ¦As) K-Na-Ti-REE bearing, fluids and brines.

Jan 1, 1994

By Resta S. A

Energy Resources of Australia Ltd - Ranger Mine is located about 255 kilometres east of Darwin in the Alligator Rivers Region of the Northern Territory. The Ranger project is surrounded by Kakadu National Park which is on the UNESCO World Heritage list. . Ranger Mine operates the largest uranium mine and processing plant in Australia. It is designed to produce 3000 tonnes of uranium oxide per year, but presently is producing a little less than one half that figure due to the depressed uranium market. The safety performance of the employees and Ranger as a whole continues to improve. The lost time injuries (LTI) have significantly reduced from 74 in 1985 to five in 1994. The total days lost due to LTIs have gone from 1543 to 14. These significant improvements have reflected directly on workers' compensation premiums in which a four-fold reduction has occurred. It is estimated that the actual monetary saving to the company is about $1.3 million per year and directly reports to the profit of the company. There is also an obvious and significant reduction in the less quantifiable costs such as the suffering of the injured employees and cost to society. The paper will review the various initiatives introduced and assess their effectiveness. Performance improvement is primarily dependent on the commitment, introduction of various initiatives and the subsequent change in workplace culture.

Jan 1, 1994