Search Documents

By Craig C. Johnson

The purpose of this effort was to investigate the feasibility of employing a piezoelectric transducer for seismic communications applications in mine environments. The transducer, a government furnished device incorporated a high Q, spring-mass resonator to load the air side of the piezoelectric crystal. The resonant frequency was seismic load dependent and fell in the range of 300 to 340 Hz. The effort included a mathematical analysis of the transducer, with corroborative laboratory tests, together with actual communications experiments performed first in an open-formation limestone quarry and finally in an operating iron mine. This work showed that the transducer could be coupled efficiently to hard, competent rock media with power conversion efficiencies of 70 to 80 percent (electrical to mechanical) in typical installations. In the iron mine, when radiating peak power was about 30 W (acoustical) in a gated pulse mode, signals were received at a distance of 760 ft through a massive rhyolite porphyry formation. This represents a 15% radiation efficiency with an input of 200 watts. Despite the high ambient noise level due to operating mine machinery, a signal-to-noise ratio of about 20 dB was achieved using a very narrow band filter to process the received signal, and a data rate of about two pulses/sec was demonstrated.

Jan 1, 1972

By J R. Leeming

Mines require ventilation to ensure an adequate atmosphere for the sustenance of life, and to dilute, render harmless and remove contaminants.This paper describes the developments in the United Kingdom (UK) from natural ventilation, through the introduction of fire and simple fans, to modern fully independent and remotely monitored and controlled installations.CITATION:Leeming, J R, 2017. The history of mine ventilation in the United Kingdom, in Proceedings Australian Mine Vent Conference 2017, pp 271–276 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Aug 28, 2017

By Robert G. Lundquist

The Bureau of Mines compared longitudinal strain energy output of a percussive drill to energy determined by measuring maximum piston velocity. Strain gages were used to determine the strain-time waveform and its amplitude at seven levels of operating pressure and eight levels of thrust. The longitudinal strain energy was found to be approximately 14 ft lb less than the maximum piston energy at comparable operating conditions.

Jan 1, 1969

By C Laming, S Staude, D Hammond, S Sheppard, J Griffith, S Stanfield, S Marriott

Long Operations is located on the eastern slope of the Kambalda Dome in Western Australia. Kambalda hosts nickel deposits that are modelled to have formed from an exsolving sulfide melt from a parental komatiite melt. The nickel deposit model predicts a stratigraphical relationship where massive Fe-Ni-Cu-sulfides are deposited in troughs at the base of komatiite channels. The basal contact of the sulfides is generally tholeiitic basalt. The Kambalda geological sequence form a dome structure with a granodioritic core and have undergone tectonic and metamorphic overprinting, resulting in the formation of upper greenschist to lower amphibolite-facies units.On the basalt-ultramafic contact, within the Long Operations, there are two separate channels hosting seven different orebodies. The Moran orebody is the most undisturbed orebody at Long Operations, with many primary magmatic textures preserved, making it ideal for studies to improve the existing nickel sulfide formation model. Detailed exploration and production infill drilling and systematic sampling indicates consistent nickel tenor variations over the entire Moran orebody. This was also observed in other deposits in Western Australia and was explained as metamorphic variations. Similar variations are observed with some trace elements that cannot be explained by metamorphic overprint but with gravitational segregation in the liquid sulfide. Other more complex trace element patterns (eg Cr) require additional explanations and are partly originated from incorporation of underlain basalt and sediment and partly from gravitational segregation.From a mining perspective, the Moran orebody can be used as an example of modern high-speed mining, but at the same time preserving samples for the future and allowing knowledge from the geological context and geochemical signatures to improve future exploration.CITATION:Staude, S, Marriott, S, Griffith, J, Laming, C, Hammond, D, Stanfield, S and Sheppard, S, 2014. Improvement of existing ore-forming models due to systematic sampling during mining – an example from Kambalda, Western Australia, in Proceedings Ninth International Mining Geology Conference 2014 , pp 341–348 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Aug 18, 2014

By V. W. Shtenko, B. J. Ennis, P. H. Bridge

"The northeastern region of British Columbia contains large quantities of high-quality metallurgical coal. To market the coal, it was necessary to provide the required infrastructure which included rail access. This paper presents the role of the British Columbia Railway in the northeast coal development.In 1976, B.C. Railway undertook to study two main routes, one originating at Chetwynd and the other at Anzac, both located on the main line, north of Prince George. The routes studied are briefly described, detailing the methodology and engineering analysis carried out to permit the selection of a single route that would be the most cost effective, taking into consideration the construction, maintenance and operating costs. The operating parameters, track and grade standards, anticipated tonnage, construction costs and the final route selected are also presented.Pre-engineering analysis and studies of the route selected originating at Anzac, known as Tumbler Ridge Branch Line, and which commenced in 1977, were concluded in 1978. New mapping was developed to a scale of 1:2000 with good vertical and horizontal control. Based on the mapping data, terrain analysis, and designs developed, an estimate of construction costs and schedule of work was developed.Authority to proceed with the final design and construction was provided in December 1980, with the first shipment scheduled for December I, 1983. Final designs of all structures are discussed, including schedules, cost to completion, and control systems utilized. The decision to electrify the Tumbler Ridge Branch Line and related topics are discussed, with a brief description of train operations. The present status of the project is also presented."

Jan 1, 1983

By B. R. Utz

The goal of the DOE Coal Preparation Program is to provide industry with the scientific and engineering knowledge base to produce economically competitive and environmentally acceptable clean coal products for both existing and new markets. The DOE/PETC in-house program continues to conduct fundamental, exploratory, and applied research in the areas of physical, chemical, and microbial coal beneficiation to assist in meeting these goals and objectives. The Coal Preparation Division now has a new Coal Preparation Process Research Facility that allows continuous bench-scale testing of emerging coal cleaning technologies and ancillary coal preparation equipment at feed rates up to 1,250 kilograms (1.25 tons) per hour. Bench-scale and laboratory-scale research projects at PETC cover areas such as 1) the use of micronized-magnetite for fine-coal, 2) heavy-media cycloning, 3) fine coal reconstitution, 4) development and testing of coal preparation process flowsheet simulators, 5) dry coal beneficiation using electrostatic methods, 6) tracer methods to determine the efficiency of density-based separations, 7) selective oxidation of organic sulfur, and 8) microbial removal of pyrite and organic sulfur from coal. This paper will discuss several of these research areas.

Jan 1, 1993

By Zhuo Chen, Jun Zhou, Jiemin Zhou

Samples of the reacting suspension particles were taken from the reaction shaft of a commercial flash furnace at different heights. The processes of matte and slag formation and morphology of the samples in the shaft were observed and analyzed. Variations of matte and slag composition in the shaft were investigated. By analyzing the samples taken from the settler at different locations, settler processes were studied such as slag formation, agglomeration and separation of matte-slag phases, Fe3O4 reduction, copper-in-slag reduction etc. In accordance with the characteristic of matte and slag formation the flash furnace can be divided into 6 functional regions, and a mechanism model called as “Micro bath process” is proposed for matte and slag formation in a commercial flash furnace. INTRODUCTION During flash smelting, concentrate particles scattered in the reaction shaft complete their oxidation reactions in suspension. The droplets produced fall into the settler beneath with a small amount of un-melted solid particles, agglomerate and separate into matte and slag layers which are tapped out from their tap holes separately. With respect to the extent of slagging reaction in the reaction shaft, there isn’t any commonly accepted understanding in literature (Kimura, Ojima, Mori & Ishii, 1986; Kemori & Kondo et al.,1988; Kemori, Denholm & Kurokawa, 1989; Fagerlund &Jalkanen, 2000). Some assume that the slagging reaction in the shaft can be ignored and some propose that all slag is produced in the shaft. With regards to the characteristics of the physical-chemical changes of concentrate particle in the reaction shaft, although there are some research results reported from pilot scale and commercial scale experiments (Kemori, Ojima & Kondo, 1988; Hagni, Vierrether & Sohn, 1988; Jorgensen, Taylor, Dickinson & Stevenson, 1992; Swinbourne, Simak & Yazawa, 2002; Kivinen & Tuominen, 2005), they are generally limited themselves to theoretical analysis and calculations. No studies are published concerned with the processes of matte and slag generation in the shaft, quantitative analysis of the processes, variations of matte and slag composition and morphologies of the melts along the axis of the shaft, etc.

Jan 1, 2019

By N. Coli

The exhausted Santa Barbara open pit mine (Tuscany, Italy), owned by the main electric power company in Italy (ENEL S.p.A,) extracted lignite as a fuel for the Santa Barbara thermoelectric power plant. The mining activity led to the excavation of a wide slope (with maximum height of 200 m and a planar extension of about 1300 m x 500 m) in the Shale Limestone Chaotic Complex (SLCC) (Figure 1). Since the beginning of its excavation the slope underwent rotational landslides and diffuse instability phenomena. From a geotechnical point of view the SLCC represents a typical bimrock (block-in-matrix rock) (Medley 1994, Medley 2002, Medley 2007) characterized by a mixture of a highly sheared, scaly-fabric, clayey matrix and calcareous blocks ranging from a few millimetres to tens of metres in size. Since the geometrical properties of blocks (grain-size distribution, shape, orientation and volumetric proportion) have been proved to influence the mechanical behaviour of bimrocks (Lindquist & Goodman 1994, Goodman & Ahlgren 2000, Kim et al. 2004, Sonmez et al. 2006), the aim of the present study is to investigate the geometrical properties of calcareous blocks in order to properly characterize the mechanical behaviour of the SLCC bimrock and to further assess the stability of the slope. Block size-distribution and shape were investigated by means of advanced image analysis techniques of SLCC pictures taken in the field. Geostatistical semivariograms and variographic maps were also used in order to investigate the anisotropy of block spatial distribution. Finally, in-situ large sized sieving tests were carried out to investigate the volumetric block proportion within the clayey matrix.

May 1, 2009

By Lucia Kuizon

Results of the U.S. Bureau of Mines' survey of mineral resources in the Cuyama RARE II study area indicate there is no potential for metallic minerals and low potential for the development of gypsum resources. There are no producing or developing mines within the study area. The Santa Barbara Canyon Prospect contains 30,000 tons (27,000 t) of subeconmic gyspum resources, the Wagon Road Prospect 276,000 tons (250,000 t), and the Brush Fence Canyon 61,000 tons (55,000 t). Most of the resource in the Brush Fence Canyon Prospect is outside the area. Gypsum was not observed at the Cuyama River deposit. Present gypsum and gypsite requirements are being met by larger deposits closer to major markets. INTRODUCTION Location (USGS) Present and Previous Studies (to be combined with USGS section) The Bureau of Mines reviewed literature and mining claim records for the study area. A field examination of known mineral properties was made in October 1980; it included mapping and sampling of prospects to evaluate the economic potential of mineral resources.

Jan 1, 1981

By A. McGarr

The shear stress t that can be sustained by the rock mass in the environs of a mining-induced earthquake controls the near-fault peak ground velocity v of that event according to v=0.25(ß/G)t, where ß is the shear wave speed and G is the modulus of rigidity. To estimate t at mining depths, I review the results of four studies involving Witwatersrand tremors that relate to the bulk shear strength. The first and most general analysis uses the common assumptions that the seismogenic crust is pervasively faulted, has hydrostatic pore pressure before mining, and an extensional stress state that is close to failure. Mining operations reduce the pore pressure to zero within the mine and redistribute the stresses such that, in localized regions, the state of stress is again at the point of failure. Laboratory friction experiments can be used to estimate t in the zero-pore-pressure regime. Second, model calculations of states of stress in the vicinity of mining at about 3 km depth indicated the shear stress available to cause faulting near the centre of a distribution of induced earthquakes. Third, laboratory experiments combined with microscopic analyses of fault gouge from the rupture zone of a mining-induced event provided an estimate of the average shear stress acting on the fault to cause this earthquake at a depth of 2 km. Fourth, moment tensors determined for mining-induced earthquakes usually show substantial implosive components, from which it is straightforward to estimate t. These four different analyses yield estimates of t that fall in the range 30to 61 MPa which implies that near-fault particle velocities could be as high as about 1.5 m/s. To the extent that the causative fault ruptures previously intact rock, both t and v, in localized regions, could be several times higher than 61 MPa and 1.5 m/s.

Jan 1, 2002

By Adam K. Smith

Occupational hearing loss is a permanent illness with no recovery currently possible. For underground coal mine workers, Noise Induced Hearing Loss (NIHL) continues to be a serious health issue. One of the principal and fundamental machines used in underground mining operations is also one of the loudest. Noise generated on the continuous mining machine is the result of 3 operational components: the cutting system, the dust collection system, and the onboard conveying system. During underground acoustic evaluations, the conveyor system noise was observed to be dominant. In order to more closely examine sound generated by the continuous mining machine, sound power levels were measured in a reverberation chamber at the Pittsburgh Research Laboratory (PRL). Different chain types and configurations were installed on the conveyor system, and the resulting sound power level ranged from 118 dB(A) to 108 dB(A). Noise generated by the dust collection system was also examined and found to be 107 dB(A).

Jan 1, 2008

By H. Alzraiee

Traditional planning methods such as CPM and PERT have been useful tools to manage construction projects. However, the underlying model of these traditional methods often seems to fail to represent real projects as they tend to assume no interrelationship between project components. In reality, project components have complex dynamic feedback process that requires modeling of inherent uncertainty in the execution of these projects. Nevertheless, this dynamic nature and uncertainty have not been explicitly addressed by traditional planning methods. Project failure can be attributed to poor representation of the inner and outer aspects of operations that are responsible for project dynamics. Uncontrollable external forces are often cited but the real cause may be internal such as the feedback process among components of the project. An alternative perspective is offered in this paper through system dynamics (SD) that accounts for the feedback process and discrete event simulation (DES) for modeling the uncertainty. The proposed method utilizes SD method for modeling project dynamics and DES method coupled with CPM network for operational details and uncertainty, respectively. A case study that involves preparing engineering drawings in a design office is used to demonstrate the use of the developed method and to highlight its capabilities. Modeling the dynamic dimension is expected to enhance planning and scheduling of construction operations and to provide a better understanding of the impact of various internal and external factors on project schedule and productivity performance.

Aug 1, 2013

By G. Sahasrabudh, G. DeIulii, K. P. Galvin

A novel agglomeration process has been developed, utilising a concentrated water in oil emulsion as a binder. The binder is typically 95 wt% water, the remainder being an organic phase containing kerosene and the emulsifier— sorbitan mono oleate (SMO) in equal mass portions. The binder can selectively agglomerate hydrophobic particles in less than 7 seconds. The agglomeration has proven to be highly effective in recovering any particle of virtually any size, provided the particle is hydrophobic. The approach has previously been applied to coal, magnetite and silica. In the paper, sodium isobutyl xanthate (SIBX) and its much longer chain version, potassium tetradecyl xanthate (C14X), were used separately as collectors to selectively agglomerate chalcopyrite from the ore. Xanthates attach to metal sulphides, thus hydrophobising sulphide mineral particles. Chalcopyrite is a sulphide mineral; however, it hydrolyses quickly in the presence of water. Ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) was used to remove the oxide layer formed at the surface of the mineral particles after wet grinding, leaving behind a freshly generated metal sulphide surface. After the EDTA treatment, the ore particles were quickly conditioned at an optimised pH as well as collector concentration and agglomerated. The agglomeration achieved a copper recovery of 75% within 7 seconds, consistent with the recovery achieved by flotation over much longer time scales. Keywords: Chalcopyrite, agglomeration, froth flotation, interfacial chemistry, X-ray fluorescence, selective hydrophobisation

Jan 1, 2020

By Jeff Peterson, Alastair Grogan

During the winter of 2001/2002, a number of seismic exploration projects were carried out in the Mackenzie River Delta area of the Northwest Territories, in Canada. The purpose of the seismic projects was to identify potential drilling targets for subsequent drilling programs, using explosives as a seismic source. Recent changes to fisheries regulations meant that blasting under lakes, the Mackenzie River and offshore from the delta, was not allowed to induce water overpressures in excess of 100 kPa in these water bodies, and that a water overpressure monitoring program had to be conducted to confirm that this requirement was being met. This paper describes the water overpressure monitoring program on one of the exploration projects, presents the results of the monitoring, and discusses the challenges of carrying out this work in the middle of an arctic winter.

Jan 1, 2003

By G. M. Evans, S. Mitra, G. J. Jameson, M. M. Hoque, E. Doroodchi, R. Moreno-Atanasio

In this study, the detachment behaviour of 314 μm diameter silica particles from a single 3 mm diameter bubble rotating in a confined cavity connected to a cross-flowing water channel was investigated. The liquid cross-flow generated a rotating flow inside the confined cavity, which was quantified using 2D particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements. The fluctuating (x-y) velocity components inside the cavity for each cross-flow velocity, U, were then used to estimate the corresponding time/volume average turbulence intensity values, Ti. Turbulence intensity ranged from 9.3-16.2%. In the absence of a bubble, the rotating vortex within the cavity created a pressure field which decreased towards the centre of the vortex; wherein the lowest pressure zone was located at the centre of the cavity. The vorticity into the cavity was found to increase with increasing the turbulence intensity. A bubble, both without and with particles attached, was introduced into the cavity under different flow conditions and its motion was tracked using the shadowgraphy technique. Experimentally, it was found that the bubble-particle aggregate was trapped at the centre of the cavity (low-pressure region) following a spiral trajectory. An interface resolved 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to predict the particle detachment conditions within the confined cavity. CFDpredicted vorticity in the absence of a bubble agreed well with experimental observation. The CFD analysis indicated that the vorticity inside the cavity was not significantly changed when a single bubble was introduced. On this basis, the computed vorticity was utilised in describing the force balance applied to the attached particle. Computationally, it was found that the critical turbulence intensity, beyond which the particle was detached from the bubble, was 14%. This value was consistent with the experimental observation of detachment at Ti at 15.7%, and above, but not at lower values. Keywords: Bubble, particle, turbulence intensity, vorticity, particle detachment, CFD, PIV

Jan 1, 2020

By Hisataka Sakakibara

Although the pathophysiology of vibration-induced white finger (VWF) is still under discussion, evidence has been accumulated to understand the underlying mechanism. VWF is pathophysiologically characterized by an enhanced vasospastic response to cold, which can result from an imbalance between vasoconstriction and vasodilation in the digital arteries in response to cold (i.e., vasoconstriction-dominant). The imbalance is supposed to be due to faults in vascular vessels and sympathetically mediated vascular tone. Enhanced vasospastic response to cold Narrowing of arterial lumen with medial smooth muscle hypertrophy. Possible functional factors for enhanced vasoconstriction • Increased sympathetic nervous activity to cold (e.g., norepinephrine) • Increased release of endothelin-1 (ET-1; an endothelial-dependent vasoconstrictor) from the endothelium • Increased reactivity of alpha2-adrenoreceptors to cold Possible functional factors for decreased vasodilation • Decreased release of nitric oxide (NO; an endothelial-dependent vasodilator) from the endothelium • Decreased release of calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP; a vasodilatory neuropeptide) from sensory afferents The question is how their interrelations or imbalances among them are Vibration and arterial damage The next question is, how does hand-arm vibration exposure induce such pathophysiological changes in VWF patients? Recent morphological evidence from animal experiments shows that vibration acceleration stress (including shear stress) and smooth muscle contraction contribute to arterial damage of smooth muscle and endothelial cells. The vibration-induced arterial damage is frequency-amplitude-dependent.

Jan 6, 2006

Cessation of mining on the Bendigo goldfield makes it evident that, as the older generation fades away, knowledge of the famous Bendigo saddle reefs will be limited in the future by their written records. It is important therefore that the summarised account by D. E. Thomas (1953) in the Geology of Australian Ore Deposits should not be misleading. Fig. 6 in this article is stated to portray a cross section and longitudinal section through a series of gold shoots in the Garden Gully 300 ft. reef. The gold shoot along the capof the saddle reef is represented as extending down the east leg in a series of prongs, with the tips of the prongs about 50 ft. apart. It is the purpose of this note to indicate that this illustration can be suspected to be a diagram of the old stopes instead of a diagram of the distribution of gold in the quartz.The original sketches of Figs. 6 and 7 in Thomas' account were extracted, I believe, from the field note books of H. S. Whitelaw, years after his death in the late twenties. Whitelaw was stationed in the Bendigo office of the Geological Survey of Victoria, carrying out geological surveys of the Bendigo mines. He was there for many years before the Gold Research committee started its investigations in 1916 and he was acutely aware of the problem attached to the distribution of gold in the reefs. He had felt concern that manyauriferous reefs were being mined without adequate study and record and he decided, as he expressed it to me, to pick up what he could as he went along. There can be little doubt that the diagrams of Figs. 6 and 7 are products of this resolve.Opportunities to investigate gold occurrences at Bendigo were limited before 1916 because the field was operated by Manuscript received at The Institute 18th November, 1960.

Jan 1, 1961

By Chand F

The silver deposits of Rockvale near Armidale, N.S.W., occur in fissure veins in epi-Permian granite. The ore is fine grained, mineralogically complex, and contains twenty-seven different minerals including eleven silver minerals. The ore is characterized by a unique multiple unmixing from a sphalerite solvent. The following minerals have exsolved from solid solution in sphalerite: pyrrhotite, chalcopyrite, cubanite I, cubanite II (chalcopyrrhotite), valleriite, "brown" stannite, "olive" stannite, argentian tetrahedrite, pyrargyrite, and an unknown grey-white mineral. Several of these minerals derive from a second-stage unmixing, the immediate solvents of which are the products of earlier exsolutions.INTRODUCTIONSmall silver-rich base metal deposits occur at several localities near Armidale in the New England district of New South Wales. Chief among these are the Tulloch Mine and the Rockvale Mine at Rockvale, 27 miles SE. of Armidale, and the Tait's Gulley deposits some 15 miles NE. of Armidale.At Rockvale (Kenny, 1928), irregular lenses of lode material, principally quartz and calcite, occur along a zone of shearing in biotite granite and altered sediments. The orebodies had a maximum width of 6 ft but averaged 2 ft 6 in. The largest lens was 150 ft long and 50 ft high. The Rockvale deposits were worked for both arsenic and silver; 2,897 tons of arsenic were produced but no figures are available forsilver.Little is known of the Tait's Gulley deposits which occur in folded arenites containing small but rich veins of pyrargyrite with base metal sulphides.The sediments in these localities are possibly Silurian.

Jan 1, 1962

By P. G. Semple, K. W. Major, P. Eng.

The recent increase in development of refractory gold deposits has resulted in changes to the traditional treatment processes. The selection of the preferred refractory treatment process is dependent on the mineralogy of the ore. One process, which has recently gained increasing attention, utilizes dry grinding and roasting of the whole ore. This paper will discuss some of the considerations to be addressed during the design of the process fl owsheet and what the effects of the various alternatives will be on the plant capital and operating costs. The paper will be based, in part, on current experiences with dry grinding, roasting plant design and start-up.

Jan 1, 1990

By Simon D. Strauss

This article is part of a presentation Strauss made Dec. 3, 1988 at the sixth annual American Mining Hall of Fame (AMHofF) banquet in Tucson, AZ. At the banquet, the Mining Club of the Southwest honored Strauss by naming him the 1988 recipient to the AMHofF. (Industry newswatch, page 6). Introduction In the last two decades, there have been two previous periods of sharply rising copper prices. One was in 1973-74; the other in 1979-80. In both cases, a short period of high copper prices was followed by steep and prolonged periods of low prices. In the language of the market analyst, the high prices were called spikes. Is it likely, then, that three or four years from now the present price of copper will show up as a spike in the charts? There are substantial differences between the current position and the markets of 1973-74 and 1979-80. In 1973-74, US copper prices were subject to government-imposed price ceilings of $0.60 per lb through early December, 1973. These were increased to $0.68 per lb through May, 1974. Meanwhile, mines outside the United States were free of restraint. Rising demand in London pushed the price above $1 per lb in the third quarter of 1973. In early April 1974, it reached a peak of $1.50 a lb. In May of that year, the US ceilings were removed and the domestic price began to rise. What were the causes of this price strength? While ceilings held the domestic price below the world market, domestic consumers acquired all the tonnage offered by US mines. Meanwhile, in the world market, buyers feared prolonged shortages. The Club of Rome had warned that world economic growth would be limited by impending depletion of mineral resources. There was al so concern about a copper cartel that might increase copper prices even more. In early 1974, at a special United Nations session, developing-country spokesmen warned the industrialized world to expect high commodity prices. Also adding to the concerns of copper buyers was the fear that when US wage contracts expired in mid-1974, protracted strikes might ensue. The combined effect of this atmosphere was that consumers accumulated large amounts of copper, far above their normal carry. By midsummer, the position changed radically. While some strikes did occur in the United States, they proved short-lived. The most significant development was a massive economic recession. The energy crisis was causing enormous dislocations in the world economy. Construction activities were sharply reduced and automobile sales plummeted. Public confidence was shaken. Copper sales fell precipitately as consumers decided to draw down their swollen inventories. The price came down too. In April 1974, the London price- as noted-was $1.50 per lb. By the end of the year, it was down to $0.57 per lb. In 1973-74, the copper price rise was fed by fears of shortages, cartels, and strikes. In 1979-80, the market rose on the strength of good demand plus political and military instability. The price rise was also fed by inflationary trends, exemplified by speculation in precious metals. Prior to this second spike in copper prices, the market had been depressed despite economic recovery. Despite reduced US output, copper production in the rest of the world was increasing. Though consumption was rising, surplus stocks reached unprecedented levels. At the end of 1977, the aggregate of stocks at the refineries and in the exchange warehouses was 1.5 Mt (1.67 million st). That was more than three months' shipments at then rates of consumption. In 1978, the statistical position improved. Shipments of refined copper that year were 8% greater than in 1977. The result was reduced visible stocks but -just as was to be the case in 1984-86 - the price remained depressed. In 1979, an even sharper drop in visible stocks occurred as shipments rose by another 4%. This time, though, the price responded. In December 1978, the price in current dollars had been less than $0.70 per lb. By the end of 1979, it was above $1 per lb. And in the first quarter of 1980, it averaged more than $1.20 per lb. Military and political developments were a factor. The hostage crisis in Iran was followed by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. To many, it appeared that war might result if the Soviets pushed on into Pakistan. At the same time, speculation drove gold and silver prices to incredible levels. As silver prices rose above $40 per oz), copper above $1 per lb did not seem unreasonable. Then, in March 1980, the precious metals price boom collapsed. Copper prices also retreated, though not as much. In February 1980, the copperprice averaged $1.32 per lb. By December, it had dropped to $0.85 per lb. In 1981 and 1982, the decline continued. The present copper situation Why is the current situation different from these two previous episodes of high prices? First of all, today's inventories are far lower than they were in either 1974 or 1980, when the price declines began. The stocks at refineries and in exchange warehouses are substantially less than they were then. More significantly, consumers today have very limited holdings compared with stocks they carried in 1974 and 1980. Even if faced with a downturn in their own business, copper consumers will not be able to stay out of the market. To the extent they have any business at all, they will have to buy copper. And on the supply side, there is also a significant difference. The year 1988 has been unusual. US production is up sharply, responding to higher prices. But production is little changed in the rest of the Free World. Indeed, several of the major producing countries have mined less copper this year than in 1987 despite the prices increases. Peru has had labor problems that have cut its output. Zambia and Zaire suffer from shortages of expatriate technicians, not to mention spare parts. They also suffer from the failure to maintain equipment or perform adequate development. In Chile, the two largest mines, Chuquicamata and El Teniente, have not met their production targets. Chuquicamata is struggling with high arsenic content in its ore. And, in late 1987, severe rockbursts hampered operations at El Teniente. In addition, depletion of some mines in Australia and South Africa has offset rising output at other properties. Indeed, when final mine output figures for 1988 become available, it may well be

Jan 1, 1989