Search Documents

By Eivind Grøv

"INTRODUCTION Tunneling and underground excavation is related to handling of uncertainties, risks associated with geological conditions are significant and ‘unexpected geological conditions’ often claimed. This fact was brought to the table long ago, and ITA (the International Tunnelling and Underground Space Association) published its 25 Recommendations on Contractual Sharing of Risks in 1988 (Ref. 1). This public-cation constitutes an important asset to the tunneling industry in terms of being a guideline for those working with contractual issues, even today almost 30 years after being published. A more recent document is the ITIG code of practice for risk management of tunnel works from 2015 (Ref. 9). Various countries or geographical regions have their own view and tradition on risk sharing and tunnel contracts. In Scandinavia unit rates contracts are most commonly used with bid-build model, it shares risk between owner and contractor, owner retains the risk for geological conditions while contractor carries risk for performance efficiency. Rock strengthening is determined assessing rock mass quality encountered at tunnel face. Grouting is applied to stem water. Actual quantities may differ from the contract’s BoQ but a flexible contract with remuneration is installed to enable adjustment of actual quantities. Variations of quantities involve a clause to adjust construction time. Unit price contracts deals with expected and foreseen still ‘unexpected geological conditions’, if the ‘unexpected’ element results in variations in quantities. Work activities have quantities and ‘standard capacities’ for regulation of construction time. Variations in quantities are expected in tunnelling and hardly deserve the term ‘unexpected’. If truly unforeseen geological features necessitate work not included in the BoQ, then the contract must be supplemented and can be said to be inappropriate. Fixed price contracts may not provide the intended predictable cost and is as such also inappropriate in the view of a risk sharing principle, once the geological baseline proves to be incorrect. ‘Adjustable fixed price’ contracts, combining unit rate and fixed price, may prove suitable."

Jan 1, 2016

By Samuel Frimpong

Green house gases have become a major concern within the international community over the last two decades due to their potential link to global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principal greenhouse gas. In the Kyoto Agreement, Canada has committed to reduce emissions by 6 % below 1990 levels by 2012. This presents a serious economic challenge to Canada and Alberta. Over the next decade, oil sands production expansion, population and industry growth and energy demand will increase CO2 emissions. Current and future CO2 emissions and their economic implications in Alberta will be critical in formulating a comprehensive and balanced policy for dealing with concerns in this area. Disposal of carbon dioxide (CO2) in land aquifers is a potentially viable option for Alberta in dealing with long-term CO2 emissions. Studies have confirmed the existence of appropriate aquifers in the Alberta Basin for CO2 storage over a long geological period. Carbon dioxide is an ideal candidate for aquifer disposal because of its high density and solubility in water at relatively high pressures. In this study, the authors develop a computer simulation model of a scaled aquifer disposal system. The scaled model consists of an injector well, aquifer environment with dominant Ca++ and Mg++ cations. Liquefied CO2 is injected at an appropriate pressure and concentration through an injector well model. The injected CO2 migrates from the point of contact between the injector well and the aquifer domain to the main regime of the latter. The rate of migration is a function of porosity, permeability, cations, aquifer fluid flow regime and CO2 injected pressure. These models are validated using flue gas data from the 546 MW Wabamum Power Plant in Alberta. The total energy requirements for aquifer CO2 disposal system are distributed between a minimum of 105 MW and a maximum of 172 MW, with a mean of 132 MW and a coefficient of variation of 10%. The results show that there is significant variability in all the energy requirements for the CO2 disposal system. The total energy requirements for the disposal system as a fraction of the total power generated by the Wabamum plant of 546 MW could be between 0.19 and 0.32. This is a very significant energy requirement and thorough analysis must be carried out to reduce this variability and energy requirements.

May 1, 2001

The current insurance market has been brought about by a number of pressures, including: collapsing investment returns; growing losses, both normal and catastrophic; and reserve strengthening. This is impacting most classes of insurance coverage, with the traditional characteristics of higher pricing and greater levels of retention, however it is now translating into a lack of capacity and reduced coverage. This presentation will explain how the market has arrived at this situation and will challenge whether this is the traditional insurance cycle or a structural correction. It will also address the anticipated time of correction.

Jan 1, 2003

By Mark Kennedy, Allan MacRae, Cameron Hams

New technology projects, particularly those involving first-of-a-kind metallurgical facilities, have a poor track record of achieving their overall financial targets, as they incorporate technological risks in addition to normal project risks. Traditional project management tools focus on risk from concept development through implementation, but typically fail to address the additional risks associated with a new technology project including slow start-up, slow ramp-up, and failure to achieve design performance (quality or throughput). These additional risks affect future cash flows produced by the project and hence its value, typically measured as net present value (NPV) or internal rate of return (IRR). Common accounting practice is to reduce the present value of future cash flows by applying a chosen discount rate, often reflecting the corporation's cost of capital. This discount rate does not contain an allowance for technological risk, which is often underestimated or misunderstood by both the financial and engineering project managers. This paper will focus on the topic of project risk and new technology, and how these play a role in the probability of achieving the predicted future cash flows. By properly addressing technological risk in the form of risk-weighted returns, marginal projects can be prevented from proceeding, while sound projects can be given the additional time and resources required to achieve the optimal level of front-end-loading (the level which returns the maximum risk-weighted net present value). A simple set of mathematical tools should enable engineers and financial professionals to establish a common level of understanding, thereby leading to a more accurate assessment whether a new technology project is ready to pass through its next level of approvals.

Jan 1, 2011

By Mark Kennedy

New technology projects, particularly those involving first-of-a-kind metallurgical facilities, have a poor track record of achieving their overall financial targets, as they incorporate technological risks in addition to normal project risks. Traditional project management tools focus on risk from concept development through implementation, but typically fail to address the additional risks associated with a new technology project including slow start-up, slow ramp-up, and failure to achieve design performance (quality or throughput). These additional risks affect future cash flows produced by the project and hence its value, typically measured as net present value (NPV) or internal rate of return (IRR). Common accounting practice is to reduce the present value of future cash flows by applying a chosen discount rate, often reflecting the corporation?s cost of capital. This discount rate does not contain an allowance for technological risk, which is often underestimated or misunderstood by both the financial and engineering project managers. This paper will focus on the topic of project risk and new technology, and how these play a role in the probability of achieving the predicted future cash flows. By properly addressing technological risk in the form of risk-weighted returns, marginal projects can be prevented from proceeding, while sound projects can be given the additional time and resources required to achieve the optimal level of front-end-loading (the level which returns the maximum risk-weighted net present value). A simple set of mathematical tools should enable engineers and financial professionals to establish a common level of understanding, thereby leading to a more accurate assessment whether a new technology project is ready to pass through its next level of approvals.

Jan 1, 2013

Geotechnical practice combines the site engineering geological model with engineering design and operations to control risk. The responsibility of the geotechnical professional is to present relevant engineering geological information to an engineer to effectively impact an outcome. Return is enhanced by understanding expected operating and capital cost due to ground conditions.   Risk is effectively communicated by a successful geotechnical practitioner. In a mining environment the need is to assess ground conditions accurately and quickly, and to effectively communicate expected ground response due to mining. A good engineering geological model includes a description of geotechnical engineering parameters to design assuming reasonable expected soil, rock and water conditions. Pit slopes are steepened, stope spans widened and waste foundations and land forms are constructed all under geotechnical control.   The responsibility of the geotechnical professional is to collect, assess and disseminate relative engineering geological information. The geotechnical professional is a person advising on ground related engineering, and generally operates within geology and engineering end members.   Return is better assessed on an understanding of ground cost. In operations the goal is to meet production at lower cost. In evaluation, regional and exploration geology, mine design and expected operational factors influence expected cost and project return. Return allows companies to meet shareholder expectations, attract equity to develop and add value to the community.   This paper presents a discussion with some examples to present an approach and design philosophy for geotechnical practice in the mining industry.

Jan 1, 2004

By M Barker, H Li

The total number of tailings accidents has reduced from over 50/decade in the 1960s-1980s to less than 30/decade in the 2000s to 2010s. However, the rate of significant tailings dam failures has not been reduced. The significant tailings dam failures the mining industry experienced in the recent history include: Merriespruit, South Africa, 1994; Los Frails, Spain, 1998; Kolontár, Hungry, 2010; Mount Polley, Canada, 2014; and Samarco, Brazil, 2015. The conventional Factor of Safety approach itself may not be enough to further reduce the rate of significant tailings failures due to its limitations such as uncertainty. For example, the same factor of safety could have a vast range of annual probability of failure for different tailings dams, and insufficient consideration of failure consequence. This paper presents a risk based approach for design with the objective being to minimise tailings dam failures, especially those significant tailings failures with high consequence and low probability. This approach includes risk based design and risk management using bowtie tools. In the risk based design, quantitative analysis will be used to estimate the annual probability of failure and the tolerable failure criteria is linked to the consequence category. Bowtie analyses will be used to understand hazards and risks and identify and select independent controls that are effective in preventing and mitigating catastrophic failures. In this paper, examples of risk based design and bowtie analyses are presented and discussed. CITATION:Li, H and Barker, M, 2018. Risk-based approach for minimising tailings dam failures, in Proceedings Mine Waste and Tailings Stewardship Conference 2018, pp 397–414 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 23, 2018

By P. A. Davies

Paper presented at the conference: Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, UK, 23-24 March 1994, and first published London: IMM, 1994, preprint volume, 11pp., 15 refs. Hazards such as vibration, dust emission and fragment projection can result in an area called the Danger Zone being set around a blasting site. Traditionally Danger Zones have been set solely on the basis of consequences (e.g. based on the maximum distance of rock projection or expected ground vibration plus a defined safety margin). Advances in risk assessment and its growing acceptance as a safety management tool have led to the setting of Danger Zones based on both consequences and frequency of occurrence. This allows distances to be optimised on the basis of acceptable risk levels rather than the potential consequences of infrequent events. The setting of a flyrock Danger Zone is used to demonstrate a risk-based approach compared with a traditional consequence approach

Aug 1, 1995

By Reinhard Gertl, Maximilian Weithaler, Harald Kammerer, Juan Pablo Muñoz, Juan-Carlos Rueda

The Guillermo Gaviria Echeverri tunnel and its access roads project in Antioquia, Colombia is a mega infrastructure project that includes a road network with the longest tunnel in Latin America and several short tunnels, the latter being the focus of this study. The design of the project required careful consideration of several special factors, such as the tunnels’ steep slopes of up to 5%, high fire load of 100 MW, bidirectional operation, and short lengths that make it difficult to place ventilation equipment. The combination of all these parameters cause a challenging design problem for the ventilation systems and smoke control of the short tunnels. To address this challenge, a risk assessment study was conducted to support the design of a new and innovative ventilation strategy that deviates from relevant guidelines and standards, like the Austrian RVS [1][5][6] or the German EABT [8] in order to provide a customized solution for this particular project. This strategy resulted a cost-effective solution, that allowed a reduction in the number of required jet fans and at the same time reaches or reduces the risk level compared to traditional ventilation strategies.

Jun 13, 2023

By Samuel J. Gambino

Preliminary recommendations for the Upper Northwest Interceptor 1&2 specified installation of reinforced concrete pipe using pipe-jacking methods. However, a larger one-pass tunnel constructed using precast segmental lining would provide additional storage volume. The risk of encountering unexpected conditions or events and the resulting cost impacts could differ significantly for these two options. A probabilistic life-cycle cost analysis of these alternatives was performed. This paper discusses the construction alternatives considered, the risk assessment methodology used to evaluate these alternatives, the input parameters and risk factors used in this analysis, and the recommended project which is currently being constructed.

Jan 1, 2008

By Andreas Bienz

The safety of persons from accidental explosions and fires during manufacture, storage, transport etc. of explosives, pyrotechnics, propellants, firework and ammunition is most commonly assessed according to prescriptive rule-based approach: Safety is given when all requirements which are listed in numerous regulations and directives (such as e.g. safety distances, limited quantities, protective installations etc.) are complied with. Such a deterministic prescriptive rule-based approach is quite easy to apply but has got disadvantages, however: The actual state of safety in a specific case is not explicitly and quantitatively expressed, and it is not distinguished between the endangered individuals and the whole group. As a result, the effects of the safety measures cannot be measured. This is why uneconomical and in the worst case useless safety precautions cannot be avoided. In addition, waivers are difficult to negotiate, meaningful and sound arguments for pro and con being lacking.

Jan 1, 2007

By J E. Everett, F Grobler

This study considers realistic data for a planned open pit iron ore mine, but is applicable to any open pit situation. By interpolating drill hole data, grades are generated for a rectangular block model. Each blockÆs grade designation vector has components for each analyte (chemical element or compound) influencing ore value. Interpolation by means of geostatistical kriging leads to each block being assigned its expected value, and thus underestimates the overall grade variability. Alternatively, interpolation by means of conditional simulation is a method that implements random sampling from an infinite population of solutions. Each conditional simulation has appropriate overall grade variability, but estimating any blockÆs mean and variance requires sampling from multiple conditional simulations. For a block model, an ore/waste selection criterion maximises the expected tonnage at a target grade. This criterion is a linear composite of the grade components, with positive coefficients for the beneficial analyte (iron) and negative coefficients for the deleterious analytes (such as silica, alumina and phosphorus).Although conditional simulation gives the same expected grade as kriging for each block, the expected maximum tonnage of ore selectable at a target grade may differ from that obtainable from the kriged solution. We apply the linear composite selection criterion to each of 25 conditional simulations, as well as to the kriged block model. The resulting distribution of product tonnage is confirmed to have an expected tonnage that is over 20 per cent greater than that of the kriged model. The method also enables a selection probability to be computed for each block, and thus a probabilistic pit boundary distribution to be identified and used in mine planning. Proposed extensions will consider risk-based scheduling of the multiple selection solutions through minimisation of a derived æstress factorÆ and treating the mining process as an iterative system with actual or artificial ædepletionsÆ modelled in line with the mine plan, using the updated state (with new information) to re-evaluate the mine plan for subsequent periods.CITATION:Everett, J E and Grobler, F, 2013. Risk-based ore selection from conditionally simulated block models, in Proceedings Iron Ore 2013 , pp 149-156 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Aug 12, 2013

By J J. Robinson, B N. Noller, D M. Franks, G McIlveen, D R. Mulligan, A T. Soro

Fiji is a developing nation that relies on economic opportunities and recently experienced increased interest in mining and mineral exploration that could potentially benefit the country. In order to understand the lack of, or failure of, past rehabilitation activity, this study applied risk-based approaches to identify the significance of activities or actions applicable to rehabilitation of post-mined land in Fiji. This involved the use of qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative risk methodologies, which allow assessment and evaluation of mechanisms of mining administration and practices, as well as rehabilitation methods and approaches that have been applied successfully to post-mined land in other countries with similar environmental and climatic conditions and social and regulatory environments to Fiji. The semi-quantitative risk-based technique followed an earlier approach applied for mine closure by Laurence (2006) and provided a systematic way to assess and evaluate rehabilitation issues that were identified on-site by assessors, who were able to estimate through expert judgement the likelihood and consequences based on conditions, situations observed and circumstances on-site. It demonstrated that experienced professionals could reproducibly score likelihood and consequence of selected items relevant to mine site rehabilitation, despite the wide-ranging issues identified during post mined land rehabilitation. The quantitative risk-based approach was adopted as a method to determine environmental bonds for mining projects using the assessment of consequences and likelihood results from the semi-quantitative approach, then incorporating unit cost of materials or activities for local conditions required to fully rehabilitate each issue at net present value. Application to both an abandoned mine site and a newly opened mine site in Fiji showed that this approach could provide a risk-based estimate for rehabilitation cost and demonstrated potential applicable in the Fijian context.CITATION:Soro, A T, Mulligan, D R, McIlveen, G, Franks, D M, Robinson, J J and Noller, B N, ?2014. Risk-based Rehabilitation Strategies for Post-mined Land in Fiji, in Proceedings Life-of-Mine 2014 , pp 165–180 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Jul 16, 2014

By T. Dlokweni, M. Bester, C. Koegelenberg, I. Basson

Certain degrees of safety, economic, and financial risk are implicit in any mining operation. At Thabazimbi Mine, slope stability was one of the major sources of risk, largely due to data uncertainties. Consequently, a risk-based approach in slope design was followed. On 6 June 2015, a slope failure occurred in Thabazimbi Mine’s Kumba pit, involving approximately 65 million tonnes of rock failing into the pit and the valley below. Although the failed mass moved rapidly and resulted in a run-out distance of approximately 900 m, controls had been put in place to successfully evacuate all personnel. Risk assessment during the onset of failure supported the decision to not compromise the safety of personnel in any way, leading to unavoidable equipment loss. This contribution presents the failure as a case study in the context of a risk-based approach to slope design as well as the importance of implementing geotechnical controls to effectively manage slope instability risk. Furthermore, a comprehensive back-analysis was performed, on a fully constrained 3D model, utilising 3DEC software, to gain insights into the failure mechanism. In conclusion, lessons from the Thabazimbi slope failure are valuable as they demonstrate the importance of following a risk-based approach in slope design to effectively manage safety and financial risk in open pit mines.

Sep 1, 2025

By Reinhard Gertl, Soroush Dabiri, Juan-Carlos de Rueda

The Tunnel of Guillermo Gaviria Echeverri, spanning 6.05 miles, will be Latin America’s longest road tunnel, is currently under construction in Colombia’s Antioquia Department with a single bidirectional tube connected to a parallel rescue tube through multiple cross-passages. The study faces challenges in implementing the prescriptive semitransversal ventilation system due to design restrictions. Different ventilation concepts are eplored to nd the most suitable system for regular operation and re scenarios. A quantitative ris assessment evaluates each alternative system and identies the longitudinal ventilation system, accompanied by ris mitigation measures, as the safest choice, since it surpasses the prescribed semitransversal ventilation concept.

Jun 23, 2024

By P. K. Kaiser, R. K. Brummer

Paper presented at the conference Risk assessment in the extractive industries, held in Exeter, 23-24 March 1994. A risk-based decision-making procedure has been developed for selecting rockburst-resistant tunnel support in burst-prone mines. The method is based on a risk-cost-benefit analysis and uses support cost data, costs associated with the risk of support failure or excavation loss, costs associated with accidents, injuries and deaths, and the benefits achieved by installing rockburst-resistant support. It takes into account the risk of damage to the support systems due to rockbursts, potential loss of production and the need to rehabilitate in the event of a damaging rockburst. A practical example is provided to illustrate the principles involved in the decision process

Jun 17, 1905

By J Joy, A Bye, G V. Kizil

This paper presents an application of the newly developed risk-cost-benefit (RCB) framework to support risk management decisions for the selection of wall monitoring technologies at an open cut mine site. The RCB framework quantitatively assessed the risk of unstable slope-induced wall failure and its impact on both loss of life and coal recovery. The RCB framework was utilised in the selection of an optimum group of risk-controls to effectively manage the risk of wall failure to ensure safety and optimal production occurred. The RCB framework incorporates mathematical modules that integrated RCB calculations and risk-control effectiveness assessments to determine the risk reduction and financial impact of the examined safety initiatives.This paper provides an overview of the five-staged RCB framework, incorporating the RCB decision support tools, RCBGEN (Risk-Cost-Benefit Generator) and RCEMETHOD (Risk-Control Effectiveness Method), and demonstrates its application to slope stability risk management at the case study site. The RCB charts are designed to display a balance between risk, cost and benefit for easy interpretation by decision makers to support the objective selection of an optimum suite of risk-controls. The RCB analysis revealed that a combination of ævisual inspections, automatic extensometers and radarÆ for fast- and slow-wall failures with structure were sufficient to reduce the probability of loss of life (PLoL) to the æModerateÆ zone as defined by the Australian Geomechanics Society (AGS, 2007) for the case study site. The new framework presented in this paper provides a method to effectively determine the suitability of risk-controls and supports industry efforts to reduce risk to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP).CITATION:Kizil, G V, Bye, A and Joy, J, 2012. Risk-cost-benefit analysis of early warning technologies impact for wall failure risk management in surface mines, in Proceedings Eighth Open Pit OperatorsÆ Conference , pp 55-64 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Sep 18, 2012

By Franco Oboni, Iain G. Bruce

The design of tailings containment structures relies on well-understood engineering methods being applied consistently. Unfortunately, not all facilities are designed or managed to the same level of competency. To standardize procedures, the Mining Association of Canada (MAC, 1998) prepared a “Guide to Tailings Management.” It recommended review of designs and an assessment of the risks associated with tailings impoundments be implemented during all phases of amine life. This paper describes how the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) process can be used to define risks associated with the design, construction and operation of a tailings management facility. And it discusses how, once the risk tolerability curves (RTC) are defined for a project, they can assist the risk management (RM) process.

Jan 1, 2002

By J Harris, J Li, M Shi, P A. Kirsch, D Sprott

Australia has an enviable global reputation as a leader in health and safety outcomes in the hazardous industry of mining, in part due to an increased application of risk management regarding operational planning and mining practice. In 2010, the Australian Coal Association Research Program (ACARP) initiated a major project, RISKGATE, to build, capture and deliver a national body of knowledge to assist companies with the management of risk in coal mining. The online system contains information for tyres, collisions, fires, isolation, strata underground, ground control open cut, explosions, explosives underground, explosives open cut, manual tasks, slips/trips/falls, outbursts, coal bumps and bursts, human–machine interface, tailings dams, occupational hygiene and inrush. In 2014, RISKGATE is developing content for fitness for work (fatigue, drugs, alcohol, physical well-being, psychosocial well-being).This paper analyses underground mining fatalities in Australia and the United States since 2002 and introduces RISKGATE with a focus on the knowledge base for management of hazards in underground operations. Through capturing coal industry expert operational knowledge, RISKGATE provides a cumulative corporate memory at a time of high personnel turnover within the mining industry. This coal-based body of knowledge is a platform that can be evaluated and implemented for other mining domains and high-risk industries within the energy supply chain.CITATION:Kirsch, P A, Shi, M, Harris, J, Li, J and Sprott, D, 2014. RISKGATE and underground operations, in Proceedings 12th AusIMM Underground Operators’ Conference 2014 , pp 11–18 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Mar 24, 2014

By P Bergin, J M. Galvin, J Harris, J Li, P Kirsch, M Shi, B Hebblewhite, B Whittaker, R Mitra, D Sprott

Controlling unwanted ground movement is critical in mining as well as many other highly hazardous environments, such as construction and tunnelling. Sharing knowledge about effective hazard management is paramount to improving health and safety and operational outcomes across industries, and some industry sectors have embraced this openness as part of the way that they do business. In 2010, the Australian Coal Association Research Program funded the RISKGATE project to build a body of knowledge for managing a broad range of hazards across mine sites, lease areas and mine infrastructure within a mine-life or product life cycle perspective (eg from exploration through to decommissioning, or design through to operation). The RISKGATE body of knowledge was assembled from Australian coal industry experts through a semi-structured bowtie analysis-based action research workshop cycle. By capturing operational knowledge from industry experts, RISKGATE serves to provide a cumulative corporate memory at a time of high personnel turnover in the coal industry.This paper presents an overview of RISKGATE topics within the geological and geotechnical domain (strata underground, ground control open cut, outburst, coal bumps and bursts, tailings dams and inrush) with a summary of individual topic structures, as well as showing the contrasts and inter-relationships between these ground management topics. The online user can access information about the causes, controls and consequences related to a priority unwanted event (ie the point at which control of energy is lost) and use this information as a prompt for the development of risk assessments, incident investigation, audits of practice/plans/procedures and for training and development.The paper concludes with a discussion of how RISKGATE can be adapted to other mining domains (eg coal outside of Australia, hard rock mining worldwide, construction, tunnelling) and the opportunity for application of this body of knowledge and the RISKGATE action research process for knowledge management in other highly hazardous environments.CITATION:Kirsch, P, Hebblewhite, B, Sprott, D, Harris, J, Li, J, Shi, M, Whittaker, B, Galvin, J M, Bergin, P, Mitra R and Williams, D, 2014. RISKGATE – shared coal mining knowledge for managing risks across ground management, in Proceedings AusRock 2014: Third Australasian Ground Control in Mining Conference , pp 247–254 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

Nov 5, 2014