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By Neil D. Donnell, O&apos

Ore reserve estimation at the Syncrude Canada Ltd. open-pit oil sands mine in Northern Alberta has evolved since the project's inception. Early techniques followed a conventional petroleum reservoir analysis format, with relatively widely-spaced drill holes and semiquantitative grade data. Experience has developed a more standard mining approach, including classification of geological materials by both lithology and sedimentary origin, timely and multi-purpose drill holes, precise analytical data, empirical recovery factors, a computerized geological data base, and an ore body block model. Future efforts will involve enhancement of existing techniques, use of geostatistical algorithms, quantification of confidence limits, and improved control of the ore model by geological parameters.

Jan 1, 1985

Safe operation and system integrity are two important properties of a mine hoist electrical system. Previous methods used to assess these systems, though rare, have involved extensive downtime and required skilled personnel. The recommended design considerations presented in this report are for a proposed automated system that will perform real time measurements, calculations, and recordings of pertinent performance data. Included are equipment installation and test procedures to be used with the system. The report also contains descriptions of the hoist performance criteria, and how they are to be collected.

Jan 1, 1985

By David S. Butts

There are many solution mining operations that use solar ponds as a mineral recovery step. Other locations in the world are now under investigation to recover minerals by solution mining but require the cheap energy of solar ponds to make the recovery viable. This paper shows a step-by-step material balance system that can be used in both simple and complex solar ponds. Use of this system will help the engineer determine if solar ponding efficiency can be improved or if solar ponding will work at all with a given set of conditions. Even the most complicated solar pond can be reduced to six flow streams. These are (1) feed, (2) exit, (3) leakage, (4) entrainment, (5) salts, and (6) evaporation. The equations developed in this paper will allow the solar pond engineer to easily evaluate the effect of each of the flow streams on the mineral production of a pond or pond complex.

Jan 1, 1985

By Peter J. Szabo

INTRODUCTION The time period from the detailed feasibility study to the post investment audity usually ranges from three to eight years depending upon the nature of the mining project considered. It is the only after the post investment audit that we know the adequacy of the assumptions made concerning operational risk assessment in the detailed feasibility or acquisition economics. The post investment audit results from numerous mining projects can best be described by a verse by John Greenleaf Whittier's Maaud Muller. It reads "For all sad words of tongue or pen the saddest are these 'It might have been!"' Dissecting the negative results of numerous mining projects we find faulty assumptions concerning markets, geology, capital investment and operational risk assessment. Although in hindsight many of these assumptions could have been considered impossible or impracticle to have forecast with any degree of certainty, we find that refined assumptions concerning operational risk assessment could have been made with only a modicum of additional "Due Diligence". Anyone who invests in a mining property should employ a much higher discount rate of future cash flow, (usually in the minimum range of 25%-30%), than he would expect from such safe investments as Treasury Bills or high grade Utility Bonds. The nature of this steep discount translates to a large uncertainty concerning the timing and actualization of assumptions contained in the detailed feasibility study. We must remember that when a project gets beyond 20 years, any contribution to the value of the project of cash flow is minimal due to the nature of the discounting process. Thus for each full or partial day lost in the development or early operation stage of a project, the financial impact will be greater than similar lost days later on in the project. Adequate operational risk assissment is particularly critical when bidding on competitive tenders for coal deposists in remote locations such as the Bowen Basin in Queensland, Australia. Because of the market attractiveness of these coal deposits for supplying end users in the Far East, Middle East and Europe, state governments require competitive tender biddings via the Authority to Prospect process. Front end bonuses and super royalty payments must be commited before the actual mining conditions are known. Time to submit firm offers from the actual request for proposal vary from 90 to 120 days. Thus any operational risk assessment must be detailed, realistic and reflective of the actual project. When one searches the literature, one finds limited qualitative data on operational risk assessment in valuation papers. Usually this facet of valuation takes a secondary role to such areas as reserves, markets, and environmental considerations. When one comes to the question of operational risk assessment more often than not one finds the use of "rules-of-thumb", such as tons per man shift, average production, average seam height, etc., are used to forecast results on which banks and other financial institutions are required to make investment decisions. Because of the extremely competitive environment of the 1970's and 1980's numerous financial institutions approved loans without adequate "Due Diligence", and are currently paying a steep price in terms of non performing loans and charge offs. One must always remember that each operation is unique with its own characteristic

Jan 1, 1985

By G. E. Pralle

INTRODUCTION The decade from 1969 to 1979 saw the crest of a wave of investments by companies and investors, primarily from the major industrial nations, in the metals and minerals industries of the so-called lesser developed countries. This was brought about by two major considerations: 1). The higher ore grades and therefore the higher profit potential of the mineral deposits in the third world countries, and 2). The desire, particularly by the European countries and by Japan, to ensure a safe supply of raw materials not available in their own countries. The decade began with the start of the Toquepala mine in Peru and the major investments in the Bougainville mine in Papua New Guinea and the Ertsberg mine in Indonesia. It ended with the start-up of Southern Peru Copper Company (SPCC) Cuajone mine in Peru and Inco's Soroako mine in Indonesia and the investments in several major alumina or aluminum projects in Australia and Brazil. Concurrent with this huge flow of funds into the mineral resources industry of the developing world was the build-up of a psychological fear in the host countries of exploitation/domination by the foreign investors. This resulted in an increasing trend towards: 1). Nationalization of existing mineral ventures, and 2). Tougher legal/fiscal frameworks for new ones. NATIONALIZATION Nationalization appeared in its earliest form as "Mexicanization" of the petroleum industry in Mexico in the 1930's, followed later by Mexicanization of the mining industry in general. This was enacted with the Mexican Mining Law of 1961 which required that 51% of the equity be owned by Mexican nationals. Later in the decade the equity share for foreign investors was reduced to 33 1/3% for the developers of the Frasch sulphur operations in the Isthumus of Tehuantepec. However, the law was not fully implemented in the copper industry until late 1970 with the purchase of 51% of the ownership in the Cananea Mining Company. The trend toward nationalization of the copper industry progressed to Chile where in 1967 under the Government of Eduardo Frei the major North American copper companies were induced to sell a one-half interest in their Chilean mines to the State. Likewise, in 1970, "Zambianization" took place, when the two major operating companies Roan Selection Trust (Amax) and Zamanglo (Anglo American) were restructured into Roan Consolidated Mines (RCM) and Nchanga Consolidated Mines (NCCM) providing the government with 51% of the equity ownership. Whilst the earlier forms of nationalization in general constituted a fairly priced buy-out (El Teniente, Chile for US$80 million, RCM for US$117.8 million, NCCM for US$178.7 million), the total nationalization of the Chilean mining companies in 1970 under Salvador Allende did not. Later, "Western" countries joined this trend and on October 29, 1973, Mr. Gough Whitlam proclaimed that "overseas capital must continue... in partnership with Australian capital" and "in some special energy cases we have an objective of 100% Australian ownership". In 1974 Mr. Pierre Trudeau stated: "The Liberal Party of Canada sets as an objective that new resources projects in the natural resource field should have at least 50% and preferably 60% Canadian equity ownership". FOREIGN INVESTMENT The situation for the foreign investor in the worldwide resource industry rapidly deteriorated from then on. New features appeared in mineral exploitation and operating agreements, centering not only on local government/local companies ownership but also on increased taxation. The new tax rate (mineral tax, royalty, and income tax) for the semi-government companies NCCM and RCM in Zambia became an effective 73%. Likewise the much publicized and discussed renegotiated Bougainville agreement brought dramatic increases in the total "take" by the PNG Government. More innovative forms of indirect taxation made their appearance and were added to the normal tax burdens of the mineral industry which already

Jan 1, 1985

By L. G. Austin

The model originally proposed by Austin, et al., has been modified in the light of further investigation of the breakage laws in SAG milling. The model uses a fully-mixed reactor for short L/D mills and calculates the breakage of small particles by the nipping action of balls and pebbles. The autogenous self-breakage of larger lumps is treated as an effective means of fast breaking rock and much slower breaking rock. Experiments show that fast autogenous breakage can be treated as a first-order breakage with an overall specific breakage rate which incorporates fracture and chipping. Similarly, slow breakage incorporates fracture and abrasion. Autogenous breakage is cushioned by the accumulation of fine material. Simulation results are compared to results from tests in a 2 m diameter continuous pilot-scale SAG mill. Future work is discussed.

Jan 1, 1985

By Nathaniel Herz, R. J. Adamson, C. M. Romanowitz, Frank W. Jr. McQuiston, C. D. Hoyt, Robert S. Shoemaker, P. H. O’Neil

1. INTRODUCTION In this section, precious metals are defined as gold, silver, and the platinum group metals comprised of platinum, palladium, iridium, osmium, and rhodium. If the first three years of the 1970's are the criteria, gold, silver, and platinum seem destined for a bright future. Gold advanced in price from the historic figure of $35 established in 1934 to over $100 per oz (1973). For the five years 1966 to 1970, silver consumption exceeded production by about 50%. The silver price appears to be definitely on the uptrend, and a price of over $3 per oz seems probable. On this basis (at 1964 costs) the United States has an estimated 5 billion oz of unmined silver. The fresh burst of interest in platinum with a surge of renewed price strength (end of 1972) is due to the activity in the automobile emission control area, where platinum re¬mains the front runner in the catalyst area. Some international financial experts believe that governments will not rush into reform of the monetary system, and "Special Drawing Rights" (SDR's) will gain increased standing as international mone¬tary reserve assets. Gold will continue to be reviewed as the ultimate store of value and will remain the global monetary base. Devaluation of the U.S. dollar caused by imbalance of import payments over ex¬ports is the basic reason that the price of gold will likely remain above the $90 per oz figure for the balance of the 1970's. Gold and silver usually occur intimately associated, and recovery methods are often closely related; however, they were assigned sepa¬rate chapters, because the major production of each metal is from ore deposits classified as either gold or silver. For example, the gold ore occurrences in South Africa, the world's leading gold producer, have a ratio of gold to silver of approximately 10 to 1. The ores at the Homestake Mine, Lead, S.D., the largest U.S. gold producer, are predominantly gold with a ratio to silver of approximately 5 to 1. Silver in each example is a byproduct. By this same classification, the largest U.S. silver producers are the silver ores of the Sunshine, Galena, and Lucky Friday mines in the Coeur d'Alene district, Idaho. However, the largest single-mine silver producer in the Free World is the Kidd Creek Mine at Timmins, Ont., where the occurrence is with sulfides of copper, lead, and zinc. Thus, the major gold production of the world is derived from those ores classified as gold ores; whereas, less than one-half of the silver production is from silver ores, and only a small percentage of the silver production is from gold ores. 2. GOLD Gold, the noblest of metals, has been mined for thousands of years. Its chemical symbol, Au, is derived from the Latin "aurum," meaning "shining dawn." A precious substance because it is one of the rarest metals, it has unique physical properties: it does not tarnish; it exceeds all other metals or alloys in malleability and ductility; it is a good conductor of electricity and is one of the most nonreactive metals. Its greatest strength is its indestructibility. It is the only metal mined at depths exceeding 10,000 ft. Since the early 1800s, its chief role has been as a medium of exchange, providing the basis for interna¬tional trade. In the past 15 years, however, gold has emerged as a useful industrial commodity. This role has been fortified by the estab¬lishment of a two-tier pricing system which maintains monetary gold prices at an established U.S. Government price, with industrial gold being priced higher by the free-market system. Occurrences and Production Native gold furnishes most of the world's production, since gold forms stable natural compounds with few other elements. Neverthe¬less, the metal is widespread with traces of it found in seawater and in the ashes of plants and animal material. Next to the native metal, the tellurides have been the most important gold-bearing minerals; these include calaverite, krennerite, slyvanite, hessite, and nagyagite. Native gold is invariably alloyed with more or less silver, but it is exceptional to find any other metal in the alloy. It is found in veins associated with quartz, calcite, alunite, other gangue minerals, and with various sulfides. Sulfide minerals in order of frequent associa¬tion are: pyrite, galena, chalcopyrite, sphalerite, arsenopyrite, tetrahe¬drite, and pyrrhotite. Small amounts of metallic gold are commonly disseminated through such sulfides. When considerable amounts of silver occur in gold, the mineral electrum is formed. In a few deposits, gold and mercury form natural amalgam. Native mercury is formed by weathering from cinnabar and other mercury minerals. Among the minerals sometimes mistaken for gold, pyrite, marcasite, and especially chalcopyrite may be men¬tioned. The flakes of biotite and other micas, especially when partially oxidized, also may imitate it closely. World gold reserves never have been estimated carefully. Esti¬mates indicate that present world reserves approximate I billion oz, of which about 60% occurs in South Africa and 20% in the USSR. World gold output is dominated by South Africa which produces two-thirds of the world's production from reserves that are adequate to maintain existing output levels. South African gold output comes from approximately 50 large underground operations that mine and mill 70 to 80 million tons of ore annually to recover 30 to 32 million oz of gold. The USSR is the second largest gold producer, followed by Canada and the United States (see Table 1). Gold production in the United States and Canada rose to high levels in the 1930's, following the increase in price from $20.67 to $35 per oz and with an abundance of good labor due to depression in other industries. Production of over 10 million oz in 1940 was behind only that of South Africa. World War II caused a precipitous drop in gold output due to the imposition of War Production Board Limitation Order L-208 issued in October 1942, which caused over 9,000 gold mines in the United States to shut down, most of which never reopened. The U.S. Treasury, which suspended purchases of newly mined gold in 1968, had been the sole buyer of U.S. produced gold since 1934. This created the two-tier pricing system, and in March 1972 the President signed into law a bill authorizing a $3 increase in the official price of gold to $38 per oz. In February 1973 the President ordered a second devaluation of the dollar, amounting to about 10% which raised the official price to $42.22 per oz. The erratic development of the gold market, which has seen the

Jan 1, 1985

By R. D. Brown

There are techniques for separating aluminum alloys from mixed scrap, but there are no efficient ways to separate wrought aluminum from cast aluminum. This Bureau of Mines report describes a novel technique for separating mixed aluminum alloy scrap into cast and wrought aluminum alloy fractions. The technique, which uses conventional heating, fragmentizing, and screening equipment, exploits differences in the mechanical properties of cast and wrought aluminum alloys at elevated temperatures. The cast alloys become brittle at high temperatures owing to intergranular melting of regions of eutectic composition. This melting begins to occur as the solidus temperature for each alloy is reached. Solidus temperatures for casting alloys generally range from 520° to 580° C, but are above 600° C for most wrought alloys. Thus, the casting alloys are easily fragmented while the wrought alloys remain ductile in the proper temperature range. Starting with a mixture containing approximately 80 pct cast and 20 pct wrought alloys, fractions of 100 pct cast and 98 pct wrought have been produced.

Jan 1, 1985

By Dan Nilsson

The Luossavaara "Research Mine" is the First large, offensive effort in mining research conducted by the Swedish state. Over a 5-year period, 1981-1985, the Swedish Mining Research Foundation works in the "Research Mine" on the development of mining systems and equipment. The purpose is to bolster the competitive strength of the Swedish mining and mining equipment industry. The previosly abandoned Luossavaara mine in Kiruna, in northern Sweden, has been reopened especially For the project. Ore is mined and sold during the course of the research project. The income from the sales covers a large portion of the costs for teh research.

Jan 1, 1985

By Hans W. Schreiber

INTRODUCTION At the end of the day, the decision by the sponsor to proceed with a project and to seek financing, or the decision by the financier to grant financing are made on a judgmental basis. Cash flow projections, sensitivity and risk analysis, the innumerable ratios applied by the financier, the so-called feasibility study, etc. are all only tools, and the degree to which they affect decisions is as highly varied as are the personality differences and business conduct and outlooks of the persons who render the decision of "go or no-go". The independent consultant, then, is expected to provide an additional increment of credulity and/or reliability to the "tools" which others will use in reaching a decision; the consultant is really not in a position to directly recommend a "go or no-go". PROJECT FINANCE INGREDIENTS The project finance situation has basically three ingredients: - The project; - The inherent risks attendant with project failure; - The parties. The project, to be viable for financing, will have certain essential characteristics, namely: 1. Clear title or rights to the mineral; 2. Proven definition/establishment of mineral quantity; 3. Financial viability; 4. Physical access consistent with financial viability; 5. A market for the product at a price and for the quantity consistent with financial viability; 6. Transportation/shipping from the project facility to the market at a cost consistent with financial viability; 7. Availability and demonstrated expertise of the developer of the facility; 8. Demonstrated expertise of the operator of the facility; 9. Production processes do not involve unproven new technology; 10. Availability of management personnel; 11. The property and the facilities have value (and thus can be used as collateral); 12. Government approvals/support, as required, will have been obtained; 13. The political environment is essentially friendly and stable; 14. The owner(s) of the project have the financial, strength to make equity contributions consistent with total required investment capital and project risk; 15. Backing by credit support other than that of the financier (i.e. guarantees); The inherent risks of failure are (Nevitt, 2nd Edition); 1. Completion delays with consequent delays in the generation of revenue 2. Cost overruns 3. Technical failure 4. Financial failure of contractors 5. Government interference 6. Uninsured losses 7. Increased price or shortages of raw materials, supplies 8. Technical obsolescence 9. Loss of competitive position in the market place 10. Expropriation 11. Inadequate/poor management The parties directly or indirectly integral to the project financing are: - The mineral rights owner - The developer - The operator - The equity investor

Jan 1, 1985

By J. G. Asbury

Broadly conceived, the demand for electricity depends upon three sets of variables: (i) the growths of the many individual demands for energy services; (ii) the competitiveness of electrically driven technologies in meeting these demands; and (iii) the energy-conversion efficiencies of installed electrical technologies. The first set of variables establishes the size of the potential market; the second, the market penetration of electrical equipment; and the third, the quantity of electricity required to operate the equipment. All forecasts of electricity consumption ultimately depend upon inferred or assumed relationships to describe the future behavior of these variables. This partitioning of the demand-forecasting problem is conceptually useful and will guide the discussion presented in this paper. However, it is also something of an oversimplification. Examined in more detail, the electricity fore-casting problem is exceedingly complex. The variables mentioned above are, in turn, found to depend upon more fundamental sets of demographic technological, resource, and policy variables. The demand projections developed by the major forecasting services are usually developed in terms of these underlying variables, which themselves must be independently forecast.

Jan 1, 1985

By G. Shore

Radiation grafted structures my be fabricated to contain ion exchange groups selective to an ion complex. Proper choice of substrate and monomer will provide selective ion exchange with differing physico and chemical properties. Grafting a selected monomer to the proper polymer will provide selective ion exchange with assured chemical protection of the substrate. Ion exchange systems utilizing radiation grafted structures have been fabricated to ''capture'' gold, silver and palladium from dilute solutions. Other ion exchange systems can feasibly be produced to remove other precious metals. Rotating Cathode Technology is used to recover the metals from their regenerating solutions are pure metal foil.

Jan 1, 1985

By J. Boldy

Discovery of the Delbridge massive sulfide deposit in the Noranda district of Quebec resulted from an appreciation of the significance of a mercury leakage halo as a lithochemical pathfinder to blind ore. Its location, relative to a geologically inferred ore-bearing horizon within complex volcanic stratigraphy was also a factor. Systematic sampling of microfractures present in outcrops delineated a diagnostic anomaly, drawing attention to an area considered prospective for buried ore. The massive sulfide deposit was subsequently found to be blind and topped at the 110-m (360-ft) level.

Jan 1, 1985

By D. Malhotra

Most primary-molybdenite producers use a selective-flotation process in which molybdenite is floated from the ore while other sulfide and non-sulfide gangue minerals are depressed in the same step (Figure 1). The process was developed at the Climax mill. Reagents used in the rougher-flotation stage include vapor oil (collector), syntex (surfactant), pine oil (frother) and occasionally sodium cyanide and Nokes reagent (depressant). Rougher concentrate is upgraded by cleaner flotation to produce market-grade molybdenite concentrates. Reagents used in the cleaner flotation stage are Dowfroth 250, vapor oil, sodium cyanide and Nokes reagent. The development of the flotation reagent scheme at Climax and the role of the reagents have been well described by Born, et al, (1976) and Malhotra, et al, (1976, 1977a, 1977b, 1977c, 1980). The hydrocarbon collector, vapor oil, accounts for approximately 50 percent of the total molybdenite-flotation reagent cost. Because vapor oil sources are limited, and the cost of vapor oil has increased significantly over the last decade, several studies have been done to evaluate alternate oil-based collectors and/or blends of collectors which would produce similar metallurgical results at a reduced cost, or increase the overall molybdenite recovery at the same cost (Smit and Bhasin, 1983; Hahn, 1969; Smith and Bhappu, 1971). The approach taken in the present study was to evaluate alternate non-oil based collectors and collector systems that are less expensive than vapor oil.

Jan 1, 1985

The Bureau of Mines evaluated short-delay coal mine detonators manu-factured by three domestic companies for electrostatic sensitivity, strength, and no-fire current level. Electrostatic sensitivity was studied in pin-to-pin and pin-to-case modes employing lO-kV potential. Strength of detonation was measured in the Bureau's underwater test fa-cility. No-fire current was measured using a constant-current power supply unit. Test procedures and experimental data are included.

Jan 1, 1985

By Hebbard GJ

Vertical crater retreat mining is being used at Zinc Corporation, Limited and New Broken Hill Consolidated, Limited for pillar recovery between previously mined and filled stopes. In order to increase productivity in the older lead lode areas of the mine, particularly in the lower grade sections around the keel of the orebody, score form of longhole stoping was considered necessary.Due to poor ground conditions in the country rock surrounding the ore and the requirement to provide sane wall support during mining, primary VCR mining has been utilised in these areas.At Zinc Corporation, several stopes have thus far been mined by a hybrid longhole stripping - VCR method.

Jan 1, 1985

By Ellsworth R. Spencer

A lightweight fiberglass feed leg for hand-held pneumatic percussion rock drills has been fabricated and tested by the Bureau of Mines. Its lighter weight facilitates easier handling of the rock drill apparatus, thereby reducing the potential for back injury to the driller and in- creasing drilling productivity. Current hand-held feed leg drills of the same class are 50 pct heavier than the Bureau-devised feed leg drill, which is comprised of a reduced-noise drill and the fiberglass feed leg. In-mine tests of the fiberglass leg showed that its performance and cost are comparable to those of standard aluminum feed legs.

Jan 1, 1985

By Robert B. Parsons

"This month, Tax Notes focuses on two features which can potentially ""dress up"" a new issue of common shares to make the shares more attractive to investors. Attaching warrants to a share issue is a relatively common practice, and recent years have seen an imaginative variety of different kinds of warrants, some of which can be subject to somewhat different tax treatment . A less common financing strategy which certainly deserves some consideration involves the possibility of utilizing ""Share Purchase Tax Credits "" in conjunction with a new share issue.IntroductionPrevious subjects covered in Tax Notes have dealt with flow-through shares and other tax angles which can make equity issues more appealing to potential investor s. Two other techniques which can add zest to a new stock issue involve the utilization of warrants and ""share purchase tax credits"" (or SPTCs). This article takes a brief look at the better known subject of warrants and the lesser known matter of SPTCs.Of course, this paper presents only a relatively general summary of the income tax implications of warrants and SPTCs, and is not intended to be a definitive commentary on all of the detailed and complex tax issues that might be relevant in the circumstances."

Jan 1, 1985

By John H. Puffer, Andreas H. Vassiliou

The Bemco mine area is within the Precambrian igneous and metamorphic rock terrain of the New Jersey Highlands province. Rocks In the area include a pyroxene granite, a hornblende granite, a quartz-oligoclase gneiss and a pegmatite and its host rock, a lens of amphibolite which becomes a sulfide-rich pyroxenite near the ore zone. The ore-bearing zone occurs along the hanging wall and foot-wall contact of the pegmatite which was emplaced discordantly into the amphibolite-pyroxenite.

Jan 1, 1985

By John C. Robison

INTRODUCTION Sensitivity analysis is a means of gauging the impact of individual risks on a financing. Key risks can occur in three time periods: - Feasibility, engineering and construction phase; - Start up phase (usually through completion); - Operating phase (post completion). If a company has agreed to cover these risks prior to completion, then less attention will be paid to the sensitivity of the project in the first two time periods. Since the operating phase of the project generates cash for both operations and debt service and generally does not begin until two to six years after the loan is signed, it is wise to look at scenarios other than the projected "base-case" scenario in order to determine the project's capability to operate successfully under a broad range of probable future events. Lenders are compensated at a fixed spread over their borrowing base and generally are not compensated if the project is successful beyond expectation. They are also subject to the loss of principal plus funding costs if the project performs below expectation. Because of this, lenders establish sensitivities around the parameters of conservative projections developed in the project feasibility studies and the cash flows resulting from these projections. The initial cash flow projections should demonstrate the project's ability to meet cash costs, debt service requirements (principal and interest), and still have sufficient cushion to cover contingencies such as strikes, price fluctuations, force majeur situations, etc. (See Schreiber, Chapter 10). The selection of the level of sensitivity analysis to be performed is the result of both objective criteria, including probabilistic analysis applied to the technical parameters, and, of equal importance, subjective criteria applied by the analysts, especially with regard to the economic and financial parameters impacting the project cash flows. RISK SENSITIVITY Assumptions used in the cash flow projections should be realistic. Risks identified by the lenders should be identified and cash flows prepared to assess whether these project risks are acceptable. Typical project risks include the following (see also Chapter 9): - Sufficient reserves - quantity and quality - Product price - Production level - Operating costs - Availability of energy and supplies - Transportation and infrastructure requirements and costs - Interest rate - Completion risks - Tax level - Political risks - Cost over-run risks - Operator experience - Management - Technological risks - Environmental permits and risks - Foreign exchange risks - Insurance coverage - Equity of sponsors - Inflation rate - Capital expenditure during project life In order to see the effect on the cash flow projections, each risk should be analyzed for its impact on the cash flow generating capacity of the project. Sensitivities can be examined to see if the resultant cash flow projection will meet the lenders minimum credit standards. 1.Reserve Sensitivity In general, lenders will not assume the reserve risk. However, it should also be noted that lenders receive loan proposals in which reserves range anywhere from proven to possible. Sensitivities are not generally run for various reserve levels and reserve estimates are either considered acceptable or not acceptable by the lenders.

Jan 1, 1985